Trump’s Trade Policy Shapes Copper Market, Fuels Price Surge

Copper prices have maintained an upward trajectory this year, bolstered by market optimism surrounding the trade policy approach of the incoming Trump administration. Reports suggest that the administration is considering phased implementation of trade tariffs rather than imposing substantial levies in a single move. 

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump advocated for tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese exports and 10% to 20% on all imports. However, a gradual implementation offers a more constructive outlook for copper, which has gained 4% this year after a decline in the previous quarter due to a stronger dollar and limited effectiveness of China’s economic stimulus measures.

On Jan. 14, copper rose 0.7% to US$9,159.00 per ton on the London Metal Exchange. Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are also projected to remain low in 2025 due to tightening global supply, according to a report by Fastmarkets. Fastmarkets Analyst Andrew Cole forecasts an annual average spot TC of US$10.7/t for the year, potentially climbing to US$20/t on a monthly average by year-end.