Global Offshore Rig Market to Rebound, Mexican Activity Lags

The global offshore drilling market is set for recovery, driven by increasing rig tenders, higher energy demand, and exploration in offshore regions such as Africa, Asia, Brazil and the Mediterranean. However, Mexico’s offshore drilling activity continues to decline, weighed down by budget constraints and supplier debt issues linked to PEMEX.

According to Baker Hughes' July 2025 International Monthly Rig Count, Mexico operated 13 offshore rigs and 17 onshore rigs in July. Although this reflects a slight increase from 10 offshore rigs in June, the country has seen a steep drop since November 2024, when 45 rigs were active (23 onshore, 22 offshore). By December 2024, the rig count fell to 34 (18 onshore, 16 offshore). From January to July 2025, Mexico averaged 10 offshore rigs per month, nearly 50% below the 2024 monthly average of 21.

Offshore contractor Transocean expects a market rebound by late 2026. “While the pace of contracting activity has been measured since the middle of last year, all projections suggest we are nearing the end of this temporary slowdown,” said CEO Keelan Adamson in an Aug. 5 earnings call. “We are going to see more of the active fleet being contracted and as we move out into the end of this year and into 2026, we are going to see a lot more contracting activity and tendering activity for the out years of 2026 and beyond.”

Transocean cited rising global oil and gas demand and declining onshore reserves as key factors behind the offshore shift. Exploration and production companies are directing more capital offshore and pursuing remedial work to boost output.

In contrast, Mexico’s activity has been hindered by delayed payments from PEMEX. Grupo México’s drilling subsidiary, Perforadora México (Pemsa), suspended operations on four offshore jack-up platforms due to nonpayment. The platforms are located in Chihuahua, Zacatecas, Campeche and Tabasco. In its 2Q25 financial statement, Pemsa reported a 64% year-on-year revenue drop to US$42 million and an 89% fall in EBITDA to US$7 million. “Given PEMEX’s situation and the lack of payment to suppliers, it is better for us to have these platforms temporarily shut down than operating,” the company said.

PEMEX continues to struggle to meet its production targets. In 1H25, the company averaged 1.622MMb/d in liquid hydrocarbons, below the federal government’s 1.8MMb/d goal. Production in 2024 averaged 1.759MMb/d, but steadily declined from 1.829MMb/d in January to 1.618MMb/d in December. In 1H25, production has stabilized just above 1.6MMb/d. Comparing January 2024 to June 2025, PEMEX production has fallen by 200Mb/d, an 11% decrease over 18 months.

Meanwhile, the US continues to lead in productivity. Although its onshore rig count has fallen from over 1,000 in 2019 to about 540 today, oil output has increased from 12.14MMb/d to 13.5MMb/d, thanks to technology and efficiency gains in shale fields. However, analysts warn that these gains may not be enough to maintain growth, as rig counts are projected to decline further, potentially lowering output through 2027.