Mexico’s Oil Revenue Declines in 2025

Mexico’s oil revenues experienced a sharp decline in early 2025, raising concerns over the long-term sustainability of the country's public finances despite stable tax revenue.

According to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), oil revenues from January to April fell by 12.3% year over year in real terms. This contraction marks one of the steepest first-quarter declines since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global oil markets in 2020.

PEMEX recorded a particularly steep drop in income. Total revenues from PEMEX — including domestic and international sales, service income, and capital contributions — fell by 24.2% compared to the same period last year. From January to April, oil revenues amounted to MX$315.28 billion (US$16.4 billion), of which PEMEX contributed MX$224.66 billion. However, this was MX$118.22 billion short of what the Treasury had projected.

The shortfall has been partially mitigated by stronger-than-expected tax collections, which exceeded government forecasts by MX$83.85 billion. Still, the weak performance of the oil sector continues to weigh heavily on federal finances.

The decline is occurring even as hydrocarbon production has seen a modest increase. PEMEX and its partners averaged 1.63MMb/d in April, but this figure remains below the official production target of 1.76 MMb/d. The average export price of Mexican crude stood at US$60.52/b, its lowest since March 2021, undermining revenue even as volumes improve.

The SHCP had projected an average crude price of US$62.40/b for the year, but by the end of May, prices had slipped to US$57.12/b. Oil output is also lagging behind the expected annual average of 1.72MMb/d.