Mexico’s Oil Revenue Falls Amid Production Shortfall

Oil revenues in Mexico dropped by 23.8% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP). Between January and May, oil income totaled MX$375.217 billion (US$20.098 billion), representing only 10.8% of the country’s total public revenues. This marks the lowest proportion since the same period in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected global energy markets.

The decline in oil revenue contrasts with an 8.9% increase in tax revenues, which reached MX$2.411 trillion over the same period. The Ministry emphasized that tax collection continues to support public finances in the context of weakening oil income and fiscal consolidation efforts.

The SHCP attributed the lower oil revenue to a shortfall in planned production targets. Crude oil output, excluding condensates, averaged 1.4MMb/d, below the original estimate of 1.5MMb/d for the period.

Despite international oil prices performing better than expected, with the average price reaching US$63.9/b against the projected US$60.3/b, the price differential was not sufficient to compensate for the lower output.

The figures were published in SHCP’s latest Public Finance and Public Debt Report, which provides monthly updates on government revenue and spending. The report underscores the ongoing volatility in oil production and pricing as a risk factor for public finances, even as non-oil revenues continue to increase.

The drop of MX$175.6 billion in oil income adds pressure to the government's broader revenue strategy. Authorities have emphasized the need to diversify fiscal sources and strengthen non-oil tax bases in light of production challenges at PEMEX and ongoing uncertainty in global energy markets.

Mexico’s 2025 General Economic Policy Criteria had anticipated higher oil output and moderate international prices, forming the basis for budget projections. The lower-than-expected production levels have prompted concerns about meeting fiscal targets in the second half of the year.