Oil Demand to Peak by 2030: Sinopec

Sinopec's recent long-term global energy outlook highlights key trends shaping the future of energy. The company projects that global oil demand will peak by 2030, reaching a total of 4.66 billion t. This milestone marks a significant shift in global energy consumption, with oil's role evolving as part of a larger transition toward renewable energy.

The report also predicts that by 2060, renewable energy will dominate the energy mix, accounting for 51.8% of global consumption. Despite this, oil and gas will still maintain a substantial share, comprising 35.7% of the energy mix by the same year. While oil will continue to play a crucial role in transportation, it is expected that industrial feedstocks will take on increasing prominence in the coming decades.

The report outlines an energy consumption peak at 26.71 billion t of coal equivalent by 2045, followed by a slowdown, stabilizing at 25.25 billion t by 2060. Non-fossil energy technologies, particularly hydrogen, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), and advanced energy storage, are set for rapid growth. Hydrogen, which currently makes up 2% of energy consumption, is expected to surpass 340Mt by 2060, taking a nearly 50% share of the global energy market.

Meanwhile, a contrasting trend has emerged among major energy companies. According to Axios, large oil and gas corporations such as Exxon and Chevron have doubled down on fossil fuels in 2024, prioritizing oil and gas investments over climate commitments. This shift has led to higher profits for these companies, especially as geopolitical strife and market conditions have made fossil fuels more central to their strategies. In contrast, European energy giants like BP and Shell, who had previously invested heavily in clean energy, have slowed their investments in wind and solar projects in favor of higher-margin oil and gas ventures.

While these companies have not entirely abandoned clean energy projects, such as hydrogen and climate tech investments, many of their bets on these technologies have not yet paid off. This move back toward fossil fuels complicates global efforts to meet the Paris climate targets, even as these companies continue to assert their commitment to cleaner fuels.