OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Strategy Through 2026: SENER

Mexico will maintain its current oil production commitments within the OPEC+ alliance through 2026, SENER announced following the 40th OPEC–non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on Nov. 30. Minister of Energy Luz Elena González represented Mexico at the session and confirmed that member countries agreed to extend the group’s coordinated extraction strategy into next year.

González stated that the decision reinforces adherence to previously established production frameworks and is intended to support market stability. She noted that the extension is part of a broader effort to develop the basis for determining production levels for 2027.

According to SENER, the meeting gathered the full group of producing countries that make up OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The bloc collectively accounts for roughly half of global crude supply and has used coordinated output management to influence market balance during periods of price volatility.

Mexico has been a participant in the OPEC+ framework since the onset of the pandemic-era agreement in 2020, although its production quota differs from that of core OPEC members. The country maintains an independent oil policy but aligns with the alliance on voluntary adjustments intended to support international price stability.

SENER emphasized that Mexico’s participation remains focused on contributing to predictable market conditions while safeguarding national production plans. The ministry reiterated that the joint policy allows producing nations to coordinate in response to shifts in global demand, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic conditions affecting the oil market.

The announcement comes at a time when global crude prices face renewed uncertainty due to fluctuating economic indicators and continued supply recalibrations by major producers. OPEC+ members will continue discussions in the coming months to outline preliminary extraction levels for 2027.

Mexico participates in the OPEC+ framework since the onset of the pandemic-era agreement in 2020, although its production quota differs from that of core OPEC members. The country maintains an independent oil policy but aligns with the alliance on voluntary adjustments intended to support international price stability.

According to a recent market analysis, crude prices have declined under pressure from rising global inventories, weaker demand expectations, and elevated freight rates that have limited arbitrage opportunities for long-haul shipments. These conditions have reduced crude export margins and weighed on refining economics worldwide.

For Mexico, these developments compound preexisting structural challenges. While the government maintains its commitment to refine more crude domestically, notably through the ramp-up of the Olmeca Refinery, and to reduce fuel imports, analysts warn that lower global oil prices, volatile freight, and refining margins, and weak demand for refined products could undermine profitability.

Current data shows PEMEX is producing significantly under the 1.8MMb/d benchmark set by the government. In 2025, monthly reports indicate crude-oil and condensate production at about 1.64MMb/d in October, one of the lowest levels since 2018. 

The company itself projected a 2025 crude output of only 1.58 MMb/d, well below the target. Analysts attribute the shortfall to declining yield from mature fields, delayed well workovers and lack of new discoveries.