PEMEX Debt Relief Central to Mexico’s 2026 Economic Package

Mexico’s proposed 2026 Federal Government Economic Package reaffirms fiscal support for PEMEX and expands SENER’s budget, representing a key plank in the government’s broader strategy to stabilize the energy sector, boost production, and carefully manage PEMEX’s mounting debt.

Under the new budget, PEMEX’s financial framework for 2026 will remain consistent with recent terms, aligned with its 2025–2035 Strategic Plan aimed at expanding hydrocarbon production, securing gasoline and diesel supply, reducing environmental impacts, and achieving budgetary autonomy. The proposed budget allocates MX$517.4 billion to PEMEX, a 7.7% increase from 2025. Of this, more than half will support crude, gas, and petrochemical output as well as maintenance of existing infrastructure.

The government is earmarking MX$263.5 billion for debt amortization, covering both market obligations and bank loans secured in previous years. As finance authorities emphasize, this support is conditioned on PEMEX improving its financial balance by a corresponding amount, ensuring these fund transfers are recorded as liability reductions rather than expenditures, thus avoiding additional pressure on the public deficit. The aim is for PEMEX’s net debt at the end of 2026 to be lower than at the close of 2025, reflecting a genuine path toward de-leveraging. Recent reports from Reuters and Bloomberg confirm that this sum marks one of the most significant direct federal infusions directed toward PEMEX’s debt obligations next year.

The broader macroeconomic projection envisions a 2026 fiscal deficit of around 4.10% of GDP, down from 4.32% estimated for 2025, largely driven by improved growth prospects and carefully calibrated transfer schemes. PEMEX’s resulting surplus, stemming from its amortization support, contributes to this adjustment. The government also anticipates a current account deficit of only 0.3% of GDP, lower than earlier forecasts, thanks to positive service balances and a non-oil surplus that will help offset a widening oil gap.

On the oil front, the weight of international markets is reflected in forecasts of average prices near US$54.9-62/b in 2026, with Mexico targeting production of 1.8MMb/d, supported by private participation in more than 20 exploration and output projects, including mixed investment schemes for key fields like Zama and Trion. By anchoring growth across both PEMEX and CFE, the government is structurally repositioning state energy companies as pillars of national sovereignty and economic development, moving away from the earlier “productive enterprise” model toward strategic public institutions with secure financial footing.

SENER receives a substantial increase in its budget, up 86.8%, to MX$267.439.1 billion, making it the single largest beneficiary of fiscal expansion in 2026. This boost underpins expansion plans, regulatory upgrades, and oversight related to the energy transition. Despite this, CFE’s budget slightly contracts by 1.8%, although transfers remain stable in real terms, channeling MX$87.8 million toward the national electricity expansion program through 2030, which aims to add new generation, transmission, and innovative infrastructure to raise installed capacity by 25% over the administration.

Taken together, the package signals a multifaceted approach: managing PEMEX’s debt burden through targeted amortization support and financing tools rolled out in 2025, stabilizing public finances, while ensuring state energy institutions have the resources and strategic vision required to drive production and resilience.

However, several challenges loom. PEMEX’s reliance on government infusions, such as a US$12 billion P-Cap issuance earlier in 2025, and a planned US$13 billion BANOBRAS investment vehicle, reflects ongoing pressures. Analysts question whether these one-off measures will yield sustainable operational improvements or simply forestall deeper structural reform. Likewise, while SENER’s budget jump is notable, converting budget increases into regulatory reform and project delivery will be essential to support the broader energy transition and private investor confidence.