Mexico’s Debt to Hit Historic 52.3% of GDP by End-2025

Mexico’s public debt is projected to reach a historic level by the end of 2025, according to revised estimates from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) included in the 2026 Economic Package.

The SHCP raised its forecast for the Historical Balance of the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP)—the broadest measure of public debt—from 51.4% to 52.3% of GDP. surpassing the peak recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 economic crisis.

“The SHRFSP will stand at 52.3% of GDP, confirming that despite international volatility, public debt remains on a stable and sustainable path, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent fiscal management,” the ministry, led by Édgar Amador Zamora, stated in the report.

For 2026, the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum expects the debt ratio to remain at 52.3% of GDP, describing it as part of a “stable and sustainable medium-term trajectory.”

However, the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP) cautioned that while this indicator reflects the economy’s capacity to handle liabilities, it does not capture the government’s fiscal position or the population’s ability to meet them. The organization said additional indicators are needed to evaluate the broader fiscal implications of public debt.

The SHCP also revised upward its forecast for the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (RFSP) from 3.9% to 4.3% of GDP for this year, projecting a decline to 4.1% in 2026.

Economists noted that while public debt is reaching a record level, it remains manageable under the government’s cautious fiscal approach.

Pau Messeguer, chief economist, Multiva, said the debt level is “manageable” and that the government has demonstrated a solid commitment to fiscal discipline through improved tax collection. “There is responsibility on the government’s part to achieve fiscal consolidation,” he said.

Julio Ruiz, chief economist, Citi Mexico, added that fiscal consolidation efforts aim to stabilize debt at 52.3% of GDP. Although deficit reduction may take longer than expected, he said it is a positive sign that the government is working to contain spending and meet revenue targets from taxes and oil.