PEMEX Sees 2025 Gas Recovery, Not Full Rebound

PEMEX’s natural gas output continued to climb through 2025, marking a gradual recovery after last year’s pronounced decline, although production remains below levels seen during most of the previous administration. According to company data, PEMEX reached 4.780Bcf/d of natural gas in October 2025, a 9.43% increase compared to January, when production stood at 4.368Bcf/d. The improvement reflects the first year of the company’s new operational plan, which includes a mandate to raise national gas output to 5Bcf/d as part of broader efforts to stabilize the state-owned company and reduce Mexico’s dependence on imported fuel.

Despite the year’s steady gains, PEMEX has not yet returned to the production levels that characterized the 2018 to 2024 period, corresponding to the MORENA party’s entry in power. During those years, national gas output averaged 4.806Bcf/d, higher than the 4.555Bcf/d average recorded so far in 2025. Under the administration of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, production frequently exceeded 4.8Bcf/d and crossed the 5Bcf per day threshold multiple times, supported by aggressive investment in upstream activity and efforts to boost fuel self-sufficiency.

The downward trend became more evident in 2024, when PEMEX’s natural gas output dropped from 4.768Bcf/d one month to nearly 4.5Bcf/d the next. That decline marked the steepest contraction in years and set the stage for the recovery seen throughout 2025. Analysts attribute the slump to field depletion, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the company’s continued financial strain, which has limited PEMEX’s ability to invest in new gas developments and modernize aging processing facilities.

The current administration has emphasized natural gas as a strategic resource for electricity generation, industrial expansion and regional competitiveness, particularly in northern Mexico where demand continues to surge. While Mexico remains heavily reliant on US pipeline gas, the government has presented natural gas production growth as essential for energy security. PEMEX’s new 5Bcf/d target is intended to narrow the import gap, although the company has acknowledged that reaching this milestone will require sustained investment, improved recovery strategies, and greater operational efficiency across mature fields.

For now, 2025 marks a year of modest but meaningful recovery. PEMEX’s incremental output has signified stabilization after last year’s abrupt decline, but returning to the production highs of the previous administration remains a challenge. With the company still facing financial constraints and the government evaluating broader energy policy reforms, the trajectory of natural gas output will remain a key indicator of Mexico’s progress toward reducing dependence on foreign supply and strengthening domestic energy resilience.