What’s at Stake in the O&G Industry With Maduro’s Capture?

Chevron has increased its loadings of Venezuelan crude oil in early January 2026, marking one of the fastest export paces in months as political upheaval and new US–Venezuela arrangements reshape the country’s energy landscape. The developments coincide with reports that Chevron is negotiating with the United States government to expand its license to operate in Venezuela, a move that potentially opens the door to larger crude volumes and broader sales to international buyers.

According to vessel movement data tracked by Bloomberg, Chevron loaded about 1.68MMb/d of Venezuelan oil during the first week of January, nearly five times the amount compared with late December, making this the most intense loading period since at least May 2025. For comparison, Mexico’s 2025 production stood at around 1.7MMb/d. These shipments are primarily destined for US refineries, including facilities operated by Chevron, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy.

The surge in oil exports follows a dramatic geopolitical shift in Venezuela. In early January 2026, US forces conducted a high-profile operation that led to the capture and removal of long-time President Nicolás Maduro. US authorities subsequently declared they would control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely, directing the proceeds into accounts overseen by Washington under the premise that the revenues would benefit both Venezuela and the United States. This intervention has been widely characterized by the US government as a move to secure energy supplies and prevent Venezuela’s oil wealth from aligning with strategic competitors like China.

Chevron operates in Venezuela under a special authorization from the US government that exempts it from broader sanctions on the country’s energy sector. Historically, Chevron’s presence in Venezuela traces back to pre-sanctions arrangements and its joint ventures with state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). The new negotiations, reported by Reuters, involve discussions to expand this license, which could allow Chevron to increase crude exports and reopen access to buyers beyond the United States.

US Strategic Interests; Geopolitical Controversy

The Trump administration has framed its actions in Venezuela as part of a strategy to stabilize global energy markets, reduce dependence on foreign oil suppliers and lower fuel costs for US consumers. According to public statements from the White House, up to 50MMb of Venezuelan oil could be supplied to the US as part of initial arrangements, with broader control over future sales. This policy shift reflects a marked departure from previous sanctions regimes aimed at isolating the Maduro government.

The current US approach to Venezuela fits squarely within a renewed and more explicit “America First” doctrine that prioritizes direct access to strategic resources over multilateral consensus. As explained by Adrián Juárez Pineda, CEO, CTA Consultoría y Tecnología Ambiental, Washington now views energy, critical minerals and supply chains in Latin America primarily through a national security lens, rather than as areas for cooperative development.

From this perspective, US involvement in Venezuelan oil is not an isolated response to political instability but part of a broader strategy to reassert control over resources deemed essential for economic resilience, energy security and geopolitical competition with China. The emphasis on securing hydrocarbons, even at the cost of diplomatic friction or legal controversy, reflects a shift toward transactional relationships in the region, where access and alignment matter more than institutional norms.

For Latin America, Juárez explains, this doctrine risks reinforcing asymmetrical power dynamics, as countries rich in natural resources may face increased pressure to accommodate US strategic interests, while state-owned companies like PEMEX could find themselves competing not only in markets, but also against a geopolitical framework that favors US corporate and security priorities above regional energy sovereignty.

Political Transition

Recently, Delcy Rodríguez, a long-time ally of the late Nicolás Maduro and a prominent figure in Venezuela’s ruling political faction, assumed the presidency following Maduro’s removal. A former vice president and foreign minister, Rodríguez has been central to the government’s diplomatic and political efforts for years, often representing Venezuela in contentious negotiations with foreign powers. Her appointment as president reflects continuity with the existing political establishment, even as Washington and other international actors press for reforms and expanded collaboration on oil exports.

The United States has publicly warned that if Rodríguez’s administration takes actions deemed contrary to international norms or US policy priorities, she could face charges under US law, a rare escalation highlighting the tense interplay between Caracas and Washington. Despite these pressures, Rodríguez has sought to position her presidency as a pragmatic engagement with foreign partners, particularly in discussions surrounding Venezuelan oil production and export arrangements.

This blend of established political loyalty and diplomatic negotiation underscores the complex political environment in Venezuela as it reenters global energy markets under new conditions. According to Independent Consultant Maria Teresa Arnal, the situation transcends a simple binary of domestic acceptance of Maduro or rejection of the US military operation. Arnal argues that the political shifts now unfolding reflect a much deeper systemic struggle rooted in Venezuela’s recent history, in which controlling power has become embedded in broader networks of political ideology and governance, rather than merely “defeating Maduro” as an individual. For Arnal, the path toward meaningful change began long before outside intervention, with Venezuelans themselves expressing a desire for change in previous electoral processes, and therefore the narrative should not be reduced to geopolitical maneuvers alone. Even amid foreign involvement and media simplification, the real transformation must come from sustained internal political will and civic engagement.

Controversy Over Legality, Legitimacy

The international legality of the US intervention and resulting control of Venezuelan oil resources has sparked intense controversy. Critics argue that the military operation and subsequent declaration of indefinite US oversight over oil sales violate principles of sovereignty, international law and the rights of the Venezuelan people. Legal scholars and diplomatic observers have questioned whether Washington’s actions constitute unauthorized appropriation of a sovereign nation’s natural resources. Such criticisms have come from global institutions, human rights advocates and geopolitical analysts who warn of setting dangerous precedents for international resource control

Furthermore, these developments have drawn rebukes from several Latin American governments, including Mexico, which, along with other nations, has publicly opposed what it calls an attempt by the Trump administration to “control crude oil” from Venezuela. These governments have raised concerns about territorial sovereignty and the broader implications of US energy policy in the region.

Interim President Rodríguez has been reported to engage with US officials, including contact with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as part of discussions to normalize collaboration on oil exports while navigating the diplomatic fallout from the US intervention. Despite this progress, both legal and diplomatic questions remain unresolved as multinational oil companies assess their roles in a politically volatile energy sector.

Chevron’s Position and Industry Dynamics

Chevron’s position as the sole Western supermajor active in Venezuela gives it a strategic advantage, especially as other firms weigh reentry under new licensing frameworks. The potential expansion of its license could restore export levels that were previously curtailed under tightened restrictions. In late 2025, US sanctions had limited Chevron’s Venezuelan exports, reducing volumes from roughly 250Mb/d to around 1000Mb/d, and prohibiting PDVSA from receiving proceeds from these sales, effectively cutting off a revenue stream that had been vital for Caracas’s finances. An expanded license would allow Chevron to return to higher production and export volumes while selling to multiple customers beyond the US refineries.

Competing global traders such as Vitol and Trafigura are also lining up for a piece of the Venezuelan crude export structure, as US officials seek to manage inventory and stabilize Venezuela’s storage capacity. This competition underscores how geopolitical shifts can recalibrate global crude distribution channels and influence market dynamics beyond the immediate region.

Yet, investor sentiment remains cautious. Discussions hosted by US energy executives at a White House summit aimed at attracting investment to revitalize Venezuela’s oil infrastructure revealed concerns about political stability, return on investment and the long-term viability of projects in a country with aging facilities and a history of production declines.

Impacts on PEMEX, Regional Energy

The shifting landscape in Venezuelan oil presents a complex challenge for PEMEX. Analysts warn that expanded US involvement in Venezuelan crude could intensify competition in the region’s hydrocarbon markets, directly affecting Mexico’s energy strategies and export planning. Given Venezuela’s vast reserves, among the largest globally, any reactivation of its oil sector under US supervision may divert investment capital, reduce crude price premiums for niche heavy grades, and alter refinery feedstock sourcing in the Gulf region. 

Experts have argued that Mexico may face a strong and aggressive competitor as Venezuela scales up exports under Chevron and other oil firms, potentially undermining efforts by PEMEX to stabilize its own production and expand its footprint in foreign markets. This competitive pressure comes at a time when PEMEX’s output has been challenged by years of underinvestment and structural issues.

Furthermore, Mexico’s broader energy policy, which has emphasized state control and limited foreign participation, may be strained by an increasingly integrated North American energy market dominated by US companies. Observers suggest that PEMEX could be squeezed in terms of pricing power, regional export reach and investment attraction as multinational oil flows become more dynamic and US interests pivot toward Venezuelan opportunities.