Mexico Unveils Ambitious NDC 3.0 at COP30

Within the framework of COP30, Alicia Bárcena, Minister of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT), presented Mexico’s NDC 3.0. The new plan outlines a pathway toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, incorporates a loss and damage component, and strengthens the adaptation framework.

During her remarks, Bárcena explained that, based on Mexico’s projected pathway to net-zero emissions by mid-century, the updated NDC establishes unprecedented mitigation targets. In this regard, Mexico commits to achieving net emissions in the range of 404Mt to 364Mt of CO2, equivalent to a 31% to 37% reduction in CO2 emissions, unconditionally by 2035.

Moreover, the NDC states that, on a conditional basis and within the same time frame, Mexico could increase its target to a range of 363Mt to 332Mt CO2, equivalent to a 38% to 43% reduction in CO2 emissions, if international financing, innovation and technology transfer are scaled up, and if other countries, particularly the largest emitters, undertake efforts commensurate with the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.

Bárcena emphasized that this vision emerged from a collective process built together with communities, youth, women, academia, the productive sector, Indigenous peoples, civil society, and legislators. She also reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to human rights, equality, and the Escazú Agreement. “Rights are not assumed; they are guaranteed. Agreements are fulfilled,” she stated, calling on the international community to make Belém a historic turning point by accelerating global climate action under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.

According to the official NDC 3.0 document published by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), meeting this pathway requires reaching the 35% GHG-reduction target by 2030, which translates to a maximum of 644Mt CO2e in gross emissions for that year.

The document notes that mitigation efforts are allocated differently across sectors based on their contribution to the National Inventory of Greenhouse Gas and Compound Emissions. Under this approach, and in descending order, the transport sector should reduce 23% of its emissions, followed by electricity generation with 19%, industry with 18%, agriculture and livestock with 17%, waste with 9%, oil and gas with 8%, land use, land-use change and forestry with 3%, and the residential and commercial sector with 3%.

Analysts have expressed doubts about the Mexican government’s ability to meet these goals, particularly given the country’s strong dependence on hydrocarbons. “It is unclear how this will be achieved if Mexico is expanding its hydrocarbon policies, planning to seek more oil reserves through hydraulic fracturing, and if the vast majority of its 35 power plants currently under construction run on fossil fuels, with a useful life of at least 30 years,” noted Carlos Carabaña, Journalist, EL PAIS Mexico.

This skepticism is not unfounded. In the 2015 document titled Commitments on Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change for the 2020–2030 Period, the government laid out several goals for 2024. In the energy sector, it set a target of generating 35% of electricity from clean sources. However, according to the latest report, Mexico generated only 26.5% of its electricity from clean energy in 2024.

Responding to these concerns, Bárcena defended the ambition of the plan and highlighted the mitigation responsibilities of PEMEX in this new scenario. In an interview with EFE, she stated that reducing GHG emissions is compatible with PEMEX increasing oil production, as the current administration intends, while still combating global warming.

“It will have to offset its emissions with nature-based solutions,” she said, citing forest and mangrove conservation projects as examples. Bárcena said she is certain that fossil fuels have a limited future but clarified that moving away from them will come at a cost. “We are still a country that depends on fossil fuels, so we need to outline a new roadmap. But what sequence and what pace this should follow are still to be determined,” she added.

Additionally, Bárcena said that the current administration aims to boost private investment to expand renewable energy. NDC 3.0 sets the goal of achieving 38.5% clean electricity generation by 2030 and 43.3% by 2035. “This will contribute significantly to reducing emissions,” she said.

The diplomat also stressed that mitigation must be accompanied by adaptation strategies, since vulnerability is increasing faster than countries’ response capacities. For this reason, NDC 3.0 incorporates, for the first time, a loss and damage component and strengthens climate adaptation.

To achieve this inclusion, the National Association of State Environmental Authorities (ANAAE) coordinated meetings, workshops, and consultations across several regions of the country. Óscar Rébora, President, ANAAE, led these efforts, arguing that each region requires distinct solutions, whether related to water, ecosystem conservation, agriculture, or infrastructure.

“NDC 3.0 marks a before and after: states are no longer observers; they become protagonists in national climate action,” Rébora said. He emphasized that a just transition must begin in territories, listening to communities and addressing the real problems they face.

In this context, NDC 3.0 outlines several immediate actions to protect people and ecosystems, including addressing severe droughts through improved water management, rainwater harvesting, and strengthening local supply systems. Furthermore, the plan promotes more resilient infrastructure and early warning systems to reduce risks from storms and hurricanes, as well as deploying specialized teams to combat wildfires and restore degraded areas, and protecting key ecosystems such as mangroves, rainforests, coastal dunes, and forests