Trump Tariffs Threaten 17% of Jobs in Mexico and Canada: ILO

A new report from ILO warns that recently announced US tariffs could jeopardize more than 13 million jobs in Mexico and Canada, as trade tensions escalate under President Donald Trump’s second term.

According to the ILO’s latest World Employment and Social Outlook update, 17.1% of the workforce in Mexico and Canada, meaning roughly one in every six jobs, is directly or indirectly tied to consumer demand from the United States. The organization estimates that 84 million jobs across 71 countries could be disrupted by heightened US trade restrictions, with North American economies facing the most significant exposure.

“A key driver behind this more pessimistic outlook is the recent shift in trade dynamics, which has increased uncertainty around global demand,” the report states. “This is especially relevant for workers whose employment depends on consumption and investment in the United States.”

Since returning to office in January, President Trump has proposed or imposed tariffs on imports from over 100 countries, including key partners such as Mexico, Canada, and China. While many of these measures remain pending, the growing unpredictability surrounding trade policy has already had measurable effects on global economic forecasts.

ILO has revised its global GDP growth projection for 2025 from 3.2% to 2.8%, citing geopolitical uncertainty and disrupted trade flows as primary reasons. In parallel, the expected growth in employment has been adjusted down from 1.7% to 1.5%, amounting to 53 million new jobs worldwide, 7 million fewer than previously forecast.

Beyond North America, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest absolute number of workers exposed to US trade flows, with 55.9 million jobs potentially affected, though this represents only 2.9% of employment in that region. Europe and Central Asia follow with 10.1 million jobs at risk, representing 2.7% of the regional labor force.

The final employment impact will depend on how US demand for imports evolves, whether global trade patterns shift, and how quickly affected workers can transition into other sectors. The ILO cautions that such shifts may reduce job quality, as employment in trade-linked sectors tends to offer better conditions, including lower informality, than those in other parts of the economy.

“Unless we address the fundamental challenges reshaping the world of work, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are likely to have a negative effect on labor markets around the world,” said Gilbert F. Houngbo, Director General, ILO.

The report also highlights longer-term trends such as rising overqualification and the gradual shift toward high-skill occupations, particularly in high-income countries. Additionally, it notes that generative AI technologies pose a structural challenge, with nearly one in four workers globally employed in roles that could be partially or fully automated.