Exports to Hit US$700 Billion in 2026 Amid USMCA Review: COMCE

The Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (COMCE) forecasts that Mexico’s exports will reach a record US$700 billion by 2026. This projection represents a 6.5% annual growth rate, suggesting that the country will continue to expand its international trade footprint even as the World Trade Organization  (WTO) predicts a deceleration in global merchandise trade.

Sergio Contreras, Executive President, COMCE, stated that opportunities generated by nearshoring will be essential to consolidating this growth amid a shifting global macroeconomic environment. He highlighted that 90% of the country’s exports are manufactured goods, describing them as consolidated exports, not one-time transactions, which proves the sector's stability.

While GDP growth is estimated to slow from 1.5% in 2024 to 0.39% in 2025, projections show a slight recovery to 1.29% in 2026. Inflation is expected to follow a similar trajectory, decelerating to 3.7% in 2025 before experiencing a slight rebound to 3.9% in 2026, a movement consistent with global economic trends.

Financial conditions are expected to ease, with interest rates projected to decline from 7% in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026, a shift anticipated to benefit private investment gradually. Meanwhile, the exchange rate is forecast to move from MX$18.7 per US dollar in 2025 to MX$19.1 per dollar in 2026.

Contreras noted that Mexico maintained its position as the 10th largest global exporter in 2024. Data from January to October 2025 shows a 6.6% increase in exports compared to the same period in 2024, reaching US$547 billion. The council estimates that 2025 will conclude with total exports valued at US$660 billion, setting the stage for the US$700 billion target in 2026.

According to Contreras, FDI in Mexico has demonstrated resilience relative to global trends. Between January and September 2025, Mexico recorded US$40.9 billion in FDI, marking a 14.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024. 

This performance contrasts with an 11% decline in global investment flows and a 12% drop in Latin America. During the 1H25, Mexico ranked as the fifth-largest recipient of FDI globally, attracting US$34 billion, placing it behind the United States with US$149 billion, Brazil with US$38 billion, the United Kingdom with US$37 billion, and Canada with US$37 billion.

The manufacturing sector captured the largest share of these inflows during the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 37.1% of the total, followed by financial services at 25.1% and construction at 5%. The United States remained the primary source of investment, contributing 39.46% of the total, while Spain and Japan followed with 14.09% and 7.05% respectively.

Contreras noted that investment patterns are defined by megaprojects, which are initiatives valued at over US$1 billion. Between 2020 and 2024, the majority of these large-scale investments were concentrated in the manufacturing sector, driven by a transition toward Industry 4.0 that requires significant upfront spending on robotics and automation. Mexico currently ranks 13th globally in the number of FDI megaprojects, with the automotive sector being a primary driver.

USMCA Review: A Catalyst for FDI Stability 

Kenneth Smith, President of the Bilateral Committee, COMCE, reported that consultations organized by the US government revealed that over 75% of participants support keeping the USMCA in force. During the process, which included 150 in-person participants and 1,530 letters, only 2% opposed the treaty. However, Smith noted that supporters recommended operational improvements, with major US business groups expressing concern regarding the implementation of Mexico's constitutional reforms.

While Smith acknowledged that US President Donald Trump may use high-pressure tactics or threats of withdrawal to gain leverage, he argued that Trump is unlikely to terminate the pact because Mexico is indispensable for the United States to compete economically against China.

Smith also warned that the US administration might attempt to replicate negotiation models recently used with the European Union and Japan, which could involve maintaining base tariffs and quantitative restrictions. Nevertheless, he clarified that the agreement does not expire until 2036, meaning the upcoming 2026 review is a checkpoint rather than a deadline for the treaty's existence.

Antonio Ortiz, President of the Technical Committee Mexico-USMCA, COMCE, complemented Smith’s vision by noting that the goal of the USMCA’s review should be to guarantee that Mexico and Canada maintain market access superior to any other nation. Ortiz emphasized that success lies not just in maintaining zero tariffs, but in reducing the uncertainty caused by unilateral US actions, such as the use of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act’s Section 232 or the 1974 Trade Act’s Section 122. "It would be of little use to reach an agreement where zero tariffs are maintained if the United States continues to use Section 232, based on alleged national security threats, or IEEPA, based on economic emergencies,” he added.

Ortiz highlighted that the US National Security Strategy focuses on economic competition with China, making integration with Mexico and Canada essential for exporting competitively to third markets. Ortiz identified a strategic opportunity in the Wassenaar Arrangement, an international treaty on dual-use goods, civil and military, to which Mexico and Canada are parties. "If the United States wants to reinforce its national security, it needs to duplicate the production of goods that are of critical importance and have them produced by its neighbors and partners, Mexico and Canada,” he noted.

Ortiz explained that this certainty is Mexico's primary competitive advantage in what he described as the new international disorder, where the United States and other nations are increasingly bypassing WTO rules by negotiating preferential agreements. In a landscape where multilateral rules are being ignored, Mexico's preferential access through the USMCA offers a level of security that other nations lack. "I believe that, in fact, Mexico can be a great winner within this international disorder. Paradoxically, we can come out not just well, but very well," he stated.