The Real Labor Market Challenge: Wages Versus Productivity

In 2026, the labor debate in Mexico seems to revolve around how much wages should rise. The discussion has become recurrent and, in many cases, automatic. However, while the focus remains on income, a more uncomfortable question remains in the background: how to generate more value per person.

The salary increase, by itself, does not solve the underlying problem. Without productivity to support it, any improvement in salary is fragile and difficult to sustain. It is closer to temporary relief than a structural solution, especially in an economic scenario of limited growth.

The problem is that these solutions are not immediate. There are no shortcuts or short-term answers that will resolve the gap between wages and productivity. Real changes take time and require perseverance. Training better, investing in technology, updating processes and strengthening skills does not produce results in one quarter, but it does build stronger foundations for sustained growth.

From the private sector, the margin for action is precisely there. In training programs, in continuous training schemes, in alliances with universities and technical centers, in models that connect education and work from early stages. Although they are long-term bets, less visible than a salary decree, but much more effective in raising the value of work and sustaining better incomes without compromising the viability of companies, since the challenge does not occur in the abstract, it's experienced on a daily basis in sectors that already operate with tight margins. This tension manifests itself strongly in export companies, particularly in the industrial sector, which competes in global markets where prices are not negotiated locally. When internal costs increase, passing them on to the end customer is no longer a viable option, reducing margins and accumulating pressure on the operation.

Today, several forces are converging at the same time. A strong peso makes exports more expensive, a weak dollar reduces income, and the accelerated increase in labor increases operating costs. Added to this are tariffs and global trade tensions, which make supply chains more expensive and complicate long-term planning. The result is an environment with less certainty and more caution in investing. Mexico has a workforce recognized for its quality and commitment. The talent exists and works hard. The problem is not in the disposition of the people, but in the processes, training, and technology that should multiply that effort. That's where productivity falls short. The increase in the minimum wage generates an effect that extends throughout the organization. When lower salaries rise, pressure reaches higher levels to maintain internal balances. Not all salaries grow in the same proportion, but the accumulated impact on total costs is significant and ends up reducing competitiveness compared to other markets.

The debate has focused on how much more to pay, but not on how to produce better. Paying better salaries should be a consequence of more productive companies, not an obligation disconnected from economic reality. When productivity does not keep pace, wage increases tend to be passed on to prices and inflation becomes the adjustment channel. What is gained on one hand is lost on the other, without a real improvement in purchasing power. This inflation is not always perceived in isolated products. It´s  perceived in daily life, in income, education, services, and food that show constant increases. Not only does the price of the basic basket increase, so do other essential expenses that put pressure on family income. For many companies, 2025 was a difficult year. Not meeting budgets became a constant, which did not even happen so widely during the pandemic. The room to maneuver was reduced and uncertainty settled into daily operations. In this context, raising costs can choke companies. There is a clear limit to how much they can absorb before they cut back, close down, or stop investing. When that limit is exceeded, the consequences come quickly.

Reducing the workday to 40 hours adds another layer of pressure. The impact is mainly concentrated on operational profiles and, in many cases, workers could end up earning the same or even less if they cannot compensate with overtime or higher levels of productivity. The risk is pushing companies and workers toward informality. When the cost of compliance exceeds the ability to pay, informality becomes a way out, with clear effects, lower revenue, less social protection, and a more fragile labor market. The fundamental solution doesn't involve only decrees or marginal adjustments. It's in training, education, technology, English proficiency, and soft skills development. The core is to generate real changes in people's working lives through greater added value.

This commitment does not fall on a single actor, it involves companies, government, universities, and the talent itself. Without a joint strategy to raise productivity, any wage discussion will remain partial. In this sense, the central question is not only how much can be paid, but how it can be produced better. A good part of the country's competitiveness in the coming years will be played out there.