Airbus Forecasts 45% Global Freighter Fleet Growth by 2045

Airbus projects the global freighter fleet will grow 45% over the next two decades, reaching 3,420 aircraft by 2045, according to its 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast. The fleet is expected to include 815 existing aircraft and 2,605 new units. Of the additional aircraft, 1,530 will replace older models, while 1,075 will respond to market growth. Airbus noted that “freight transport demand will continue to grow in line with global economic activity and trade development.”

The expansion is expected to comprise 1,120 small freighters, 855 medium widebody aircraft, and 630 large widebody models. Airbus reported that 1,670 of the new aircraft will come from passenger-to-freighter conversions, while 935 will be new builds. “Replacement demand will be dominated by next-generation models,” the forecast stated, highlighting the A350F and A320/A321 and A330 passenger-to-freighter (P2F) programs.

Airbus linked fleet growth to macroeconomic trends, projecting a 2.7% compound annual growth rate in global trade and a 3.3% annual rise in air cargo traffic through 2045. The report notes that “air cargo volumes will nearly double by 2045, driven by industrial output, global manufacturing networks, and time-sensitive supply chains.”

The forecast highlights air cargo as a critical enabler of global supply chain continuity, supporting the transport of essential goods—including medical supplies—and connecting remote communities to global markets. Cargo operations also provide resilience during geopolitical or infrastructure disruptions.

Emerging trade patterns are expected to shape fleet demand, with the Asia-Pacific region identified as the main driver of industrial expansion and cargo growth. “Emerging economies will reshape freight routes and network priorities,” Airbus said, citing Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam as developing consumption and logistics hubs.

The growth outlook assumes continued investment in cargo infrastructure, digitalization, and fleet modernization. Fuel efficiency and emissions targets are expected to prompt airlines to retire older aircraft sooner. Passenger-to-freighter conversions remain a cost-effective way to expand capacity, especially in narrowbody and mid-size segments.

Despite short-term volatility, long-term demand remains stable and closely tied to GDP trends and manufacturing growth. “The fundamentals of air cargo remain solid,” Airbus stated, highlighting structural demand for express services, e-commerce distribution, and high-value manufacturing.

In its 20-year Global Market Forecast, released June 11, 2025, Airbus projected that 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be needed between 2025 and 2044, driven primarily by fleet replacement, passenger traffic growth, and cargo network expansion, with emerging markets contributing significantly to fleet additions.