Airlines Cut US Flights, Boost Mexico Capacity in Early 2025

International airlines reduced flights to the United States by 1% during the first five months of 2025, while passenger traffic to Mexico rose by 2.9%, according to data from the US International Trade Administration and Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism. A decline in US-bound travel from Europe and Canada has prompted carriers to shift capacity to Mexico’s busiest airports.

“European and Canadian airlines are looking to Mexico and other South American countries to redirect some of their flights that traditionally operated to the United States”, said Peter Cerdá, Executive Director, Latin American & Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA), in an interview with Milenio.

The ITA reported a 2.2% decrease in European visitors to the United States, including a 2.7% drop in arrivals from the UK, a 5.4% decline from Germany, 3.9% from France, 2.6% from the Netherlands, and 0.9% from Spain.

Canadian arrivals to the United States also declined, falling 5.3% to 4.47 million passengers during the same period. In May alone, Canadian arrivals dropped 20.2%, with land travel down 38% and air travel 24%, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). In 2024, Canadian visitors spent US$20.5 billion in the United States.

In contrast, Mexico welcomed 9.36 million foreign air travelers from January to May, a 2.9% increase over the same period in 2024 and a 13.7% rise compared to 2019, according to Tourism Secretary Josefina Rodríguez Zamora. While US arrivals to Mexico declined by 1.4%, arrivals from Italy rose 7.6%, Canada 4.5%, and Spain and Poland around 0.5%.

“These US policies clearly have negative consequences,” said Cerdá, referring to shifts in immigration policy and rhetoric. He added that the situation presents “a great opportunity” for Latin American carriers to expand, particularly with new routes to Mexico City, Cancun, and Queretaro planned for the fall-winter season.

Fernando Gómez Suárez, aviation analyst, Universidad Panamericana, explained that airlines are adjusting routes based on profitability. “Whenever a flight becomes less profitable, airlines will move it to cities with higher demand. Aviation is a business,” he said. He also cited the impact of social unrest and geopolitical tensions—such as incidents in Los Angeles and conflicts in the Middle East—as factors contributing to reduced US-bound travel.

In 1Q25, Mexico’s aviation sector reported strong activity on both domestic and international routes. Viva and Volaris led the domestic market, jointly transporting 10.77 million passengers—an 8.2% year-over-year increase.

International air traffic also rose to 16.29 million passengers, up 2% from 2024 and 28.5% above 2019 levels. Mexican carriers Aeroméxico and Volaris transported 3.39 million international passengers—a 3.1% increase—while American Airlines and United Airlines were the top international carriers operating in Mexico, moving a combined 3.52 million passengers.

The WTTC projects that international visitor spending in the United States will fall by US$12.5 billion in 2025 compared to 2024. Tourism Economics estimates the total decline could range from US$8.3 billion to US$12.5 billion—creating a shortfall of up to US$29 billion from previously expected growth.

The WTTC attributes the slowdown to “sentiment headwinds,” including travel bans, tariffs, and restrictive immigration policies. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” said WTTC CEO Julia Simpson.

Travel industry leaders have echoed these concerns on earnings calls. Hyatt CEO Mark Hoplamazian described the trend as a “flyover,” observing that leisure travel is continuing—but increasingly to destinations outside the United States.