Boeing Forecasts 43,600 New Planes Needed in Next 20 Years

Boeing’s latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) projects that the global aviation industry will need around 43,600 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years to keep up with growing passenger and cargo demand. The forecast was unveiled at the opening of the 2025 Paris Air Show at Le Bourget and highlights ongoing supply chain challenges expected to affect deliveries well into the coming decade.

By 2044, Boeing expects the worldwide commercial fleet to total 49,640 aircraft—almost three times the 16,780 registered in 2004. Of these new planes, about 21,100 will replace aging models, while 22,500 will meet increased demand, primarily driven by emerging markets. Airbus’ forecast closely aligns, predicting 43,420 new aircraft over the same period.

Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, noted, “There is currently a shortfall of between 1,500 and 2,000 aircraft. Restarting the supply chain post-COVID-19 has been more challenging than recovering air traffic volumes.”

Boeing emphasizes the vital role of commercial aviation in the global economy, supporting US$4 trillion annually, providing 87 million jobs, and carrying a third of world merchandise value, despite representing just 1% of total cargo volume. The company forecasts passenger traffic growth averaging 4.2% annually through 2044, outpacing global economic growth.

Emerging markets are set to play an increasingly prominent role, expected to make up more than half of the global fleet by 2044, up from 40% today. “By the end of the forecast period, the size of emerging and developed markets will be nearly equal,” Hulst explained, attributing this shift to expanding middle classes in developing regions.

Single-aisle aircraft will continue to dominate, rising from 66% of the fleet in 2024 to 72% by 2044. This trend reflects growth in low-cost carriers and short-haul travel, especially in emerging economies. Hulst highlighted that “passenger traffic has tripled over the past 25 years, while the fleet has only doubled.”

Demand for narrow-body jets will be strongest on domestic and regional routes, notably in South and Southeast Asia and China, which together are expected to account for half of future traffic growth. While wide-body aircraft will comprise a smaller share, their numbers will nearly double from 4,400 in 2024 to about 8,320 in 2044.

The cargo aircraft sector will also grow, with Boeing forecasting a need for 2,900 freighters, including new models and passenger-to-freighter conversions, driven by supply chain diversification and rising air freight demand.

Despite robust long-term demand, Boeing warns that supply constraints persist. Many suppliers downsized or exited the market during the COVID-19 downturn, creating production bottlenecks that will take years to resolve.

“Supply challenges contributed modestly to our slight downward revision of delivery forecasts,” Hulst said, adding that full production capacity likely will not be restored before the decade’s end.

Brad McMullen, Boeing’s Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing, concluded: “This industry will continue to evolve, with strong demand for new aircraft and a return to pre-pandemic growth patterns shaping its future.”