DIA Warns of China’s Growing ICBM, FOBS Arsenal by 2035

The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has released a new assessment highlighting  China's rapid advancements in strategic missile capabilities. The report predicts that by 2035, China could field up to 60 Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems (FOBS) and 700 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Currently, China has no operational FOBS, but the DIA projects the development of at least 60 systems within the next decade. These systems, capable of reaching the U.S. more rapidly than traditional ICBMs, represent a growing strategic concern. In addition, China’s nuclear-tipped ICBM stockpile is expected to increase from 400 to 700. A 2021 FOBS test conducted by China raised alarm within the White House due to the system’s strategic implications.

Russia is expected to construct 12 FOBS and expand its ICBM fleet from 350 to 400 during the same period, while Iran is projected to develop 60 nuclear-capable missile systems, including ICBMs.

FOBS technology introduces a new dimension to global security threats. Unlike traditional ICBMs, which follow predictable parabolic trajectories, FOBS systems enter a partial orbit before deorbiting toward their targets. This enables them to bypass radar systems concentrated around the North Pole and potentially approach from the South Pole, which lacks early warning infrastructure.

China is also expected to expand its Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) capabilities. These systems travel at extreme speeds through the atmosphere, making them difficult to intercept. The DIA estimates China’s HGV stockpile could grow from 600 today to 4,000 by 2035.

The DIA’s findings coincide with an upcoming White House announcement addressing evolving strategic threats and underscore the need for the United States to modernize its missile defense systems.

President Donald Trump has reiterated his support for the “Golden Dome Project,” a space-based missile defense initiative designed to shield the United States from missile attacks. While operational details remain unclear, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the project could cost up to US$542 billion over 20 years.