US-China Trade War Halves E-Commerce Shipments, Boosts LatAm

The ongoing US-China trade conflict has sharply reduced e-commerce shipments from China to the United States, redirecting significant airfreight capacity to Mexico and other parts of Latin America. According to global freight forwarder Dimerco Express, e-commerce shipment volumes from China to the United States have declined by approximately 50% since mid-April compared to the same period last year.

This downturn aligns with the US government’s imposition of tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports and the impending expiration of the de minimis exemption on May 2. The exemption currently allows Chinese e-commerce platforms to ship millions of packages to the US daily without paying duties or undergoing extensive customs inspections. Its removal is expected to further suppress demand for direct US-bound cargo.

“With the uncertainty around new tariffs between the United States and China, many are holding back on placing new orders. For shipments to the United States, a lot of shippers have hit pause,” said Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco. 

As a result, charter cargo flights from China to the United States have been cancelled, with more cancellations anticipated in the coming weeks. Dimerco confirmed that several freighter charters were halted starting in late April, and major Chinese carriers are now considering additional service reductions.

“Much of the freighter capacity has been shifted to destinations like Nuevo Laredo in Mexico and other parts of Latin America, where demand has actually gone up, especially out of Mexico,” Liu added.

Industry data from WorldACD supports these trends. Air cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, including a 7% week-over-week drop recorded in the week ending April 20. Year-over-year, traffic from China and Hong Kong to the US is down 16%. In contrast, demand from other Asia-Pacific countries such as Vietnam (+42%), Taiwan (+30%), Thailand (+24%), and Japan (+12%) has risen. These figures exclude increased charter activity, which has also shifted toward Latin America.

Despite the contraction in Chinese e-commerce exports to the United States, Liu noted that regions like Southeast Asia and Taiwan are not facing the same level of disruption. “Demand out of Southeast Asia and Taiwan has stayed relatively stable, likely due to the 90-day tariff exemption granted by the US government, which provides some breathing room for shippers in those regions,” Liu explained.

Spot airfreight rates from Hong Kong to the US have also responded to reduced demand, dropping by approximately US$1 per kilogram since early April and stabilizing at around US$4.40/kg. This decline reflects the continued softening of the China-US e-commerce corridor.