Technology Drives Global GDP Growth in 2026: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2026, citing strong technological investment as a key driver. Still, the global body cautions that AI developments and renewed trade tensions could still disrupt the economy. 

The new projection is 3.3% for 2026, slightly higher than the IMF’s October projection of 3.1%, signaling resilience despite uncertainties. For Mexico, the outlook remains unchanged, with growth projected at 1.5% in 2026, positioning the country as the second-largest economy in Latin America after Brazil, which is expected to expand 1.6%. Across the region, growth is forecast at 2.2%, slightly below previous estimates.

The IMF noted that much of the current global economic resilience stems from a limited number of sectors, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that while global economies are moving past the trade disruptions of 2025, the positive impact of AI and technology investment has offset earlier shocks, particularly in North America and Asia.

Despite progress, uncertainty remains high. Ongoing trade policy risks, including the pending US Supreme Court review of former President Trump’s emergency powers to impose tariffs, could create instability. A reversal of some tariffs would add further unpredictability to global markets, while other legal maneuvers could reintroduce trade barriers.

The IMF also flagged potential risks associated with the AI boom. Market expectations for productivity gains, profitability, and economic impact may not fully materialize, which could trigger corrections in financial markets that have recently been buoyed by AI optimism.

Regional divergences are evident. In the United States, technology and AI investment added roughly 0.3% to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, mitigating the effects of a government shutdown late in the year. The IMF now expects US growth of 2.4% in 2026, up from previous estimates, while the eurozone is projected to grow just 1.3%. Meanwhile, China and India maintain relatively robust growth compared with other emerging markets.

Looking ahead, Gourinchas emphasized the importance of central bank independence to manage inflation effectively. He noted that the global significance of the US dollar underscores the need for the Federal Reserve to operate without political interference, ensuring economic stability worldwide.

Mexico in the Global Context

In line with the IMF’s global assessment, forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Banco de México (Banxico) indicate that Mexico will experience modest economic growth in 2026, though structural and external challenges persist. Goldman Sachs projects Mexico’s GDP to expand 1.3% next year, up from an estimated 0.3% in 2025, while Banxico anticipates growth of 1.1%, with a potential range of 0.4% to 1.8%.

Despite this improvement, Mexico is expected to underperform the regional average, which Goldman Sachs forecasts at 1.9%, due to ongoing constraints such as limited fiscal support, uncertainty in trade relations with the United States, the outcome of the USMCA review, and domestic political risks. Remittances also represent a vulnerability, as stricter US policies are expected to weigh on inflows, increasing Mexico’s exposure to external shocks.

Still, Mexico’s international reserves provide a buffer against potential disruptions. Banxico reported reserves of US$251.8 billion at the end of 2025, following a record accumulation of US$22.8 billion during the year. Inflation is projected to remain above central bank targets, with Goldman Sachs forecasting 4.3% for Mexico and Brazil, and 5.2% for Colombia.

Trade policy risks are expected to be limited in 2026 and 2027, coinciding with the US electoral cycle. Goldman Sachs anticipates a likely renewal of the USMCA, potentially tightening rules of origin but also allowing partial reductions in tariffs for compliant Mexican exports, supporting international trade flows.

Looking ahead, Mexico is projected to reach 2% GDP growth in 2027, according to Banxico, signaling a gradual recovery, while the IMF emphasizes that central bank independence remains key to maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation in the face of global and domestic uncertainties.