Mexico's Agricultural Crisis: Drought Threatens Crop Production

Mexico is grappling with an intensifying agricultural crisis as drought conditions loom large. Recent findings from the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) and the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) reveal that the country is expected to produce only half of the necessary grains and oilseeds this year.

According to GCMA, as of mid-January, 65% of Mexico's municipalities are experiencing various degrees of drought. Six states—Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Queretaro, and Sinaloa—are facing drought-related issues in all their municipalities, posing challenges for both the population and agricultural production. 

The severity of the situation is evident in the increasing number of municipalities facing drought, rising from 1,456 to 1,613. Furthermore, the drought has escalated from severe to extreme, particularly affecting the central and western regions of the country.

Juan Carlos Anaya, director general of GCMA, warns of significant reductions in corn and wheat production, leading to increased imports. The production of beans has already hit historic lows, necessitating record-high imports. Anaya attributes the lack of productivity growth in agriculture to the disappearance of funding programs for production, innovation, and technology. 

The absence of policies promoting irrigation system improvement or canal modernization further compounds the challenges. Importantly, deficient rainfall has left major agricultural reservoirs at only 40% capacity.

Anaya criticizes the absence of a coherent public policy to enhance irrigation systems or modernize channels for efficient water usage. The call from various sectors is now for the implementation of a comprehensive hydro-agricultural modernization program. 

As the country grapples with these challenges, recent data from the Mexico’s Drought Monitor (MDM) paints a grim picture of the drought's expansive impact on Mexico's landscape. In the initial assessment of 2024, drought has tightened its grip on Mexico, affecting 81.8% of the country's surface area. This means that only 18.1% of the territory remains untouched by the repercussions of inadequate rainfall and runoff.

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) notes a concerning distribution of drought severity, with 20.28% experiencing abnormal dryness (D0), 16.2% facing moderate drought (D1), 16.5% enduring severe drought (D2), 19.8% grappling with extreme drought (D3), and 8.9% coping with exceptional drought (D4). A total of 136 municipalities in Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, and Sonora are currently under the grip of exceptional drought.