October Inflation Rises to 4.76%, Driven by Food Prices

Mexico’s annual inflation rate increased to 4.76% in October, surpassing analysts’ projections of 4.74%, according to data from INEGI. The monthly National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.55% from September, putting inflation above Banxico’s target of 3%, with a tolerance of ±1%. 

Key contributors to October’s inflation spike were specific food items, including nopales, papaya, green tomatoes, zucchini, and tomatoes, with price increases between 35% and 15%. Conversely, prices for other produce dropped, with lemons down by 22.07%, oranges by 14.62%, bananas by 12.16%, and avocados by 7.46%. Moreover, the cost of the essential goods basket, which tracks 176 items deemed vital for Mexican households, rose by 4.45% year-over-year in October. Inflation in this category particularly impacts lower-income households, which allocate a larger portion of their budget to these essential items. 

Processed foods, beverages, and tobacco also contributed to inflation with a 3.81% increase compared to the same month last year. Eating out also became more expensive, with prepared food prices rising by 4.96% year-over-year. Price hikes varied by type of establishment: luncheonettes, diners, and taco shops rose by 8.00%, cafeterias and carnitas vendors by 6.61%, general restaurants by 6.19%, barbecue and birria vendors by 5.56%, rotisserie chicken vendors by 4.16%, and pizzerias by 2.44%.