Sonora Wheat Production Drop Spurs Import Rise in 2025

National production of durum wheat in 2024 experienced a decline compared to the previous year, reported the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA). Under these circumstances, exports are expected to decline in 2025, while grain imports will rise to meet domestic demand.

Last year, the state of Sonora saw a drop in durum wheat production, primarily used for pasta manufacturing. Nationally, wheat production fell by 24.1%, ending the year at 2.6Mt compared to 3.4Mt in 2023, as reported by MBN. GCMA reported that cumulative exports of the durum variety produced in Guaymas remained at 381,000t, reflecting an annual decline of 46% in foreign trade. The price of the grain stood at MX$5,700/t (US$285/t).

The consultancy attributed the decline mainly to drought conditions throughout the year. According to CONAGUA's Drought Monitor, only 2.4% of Sonora’s territory was unaffected by drought as of November 2024. The report highlighted that 29.8% of the state was classified as experiencing severe drought, 29.2% moderate drought, 24.6% extreme drought, 11.6% abnormally dry conditions, and 2.4% exceptional drought.  

This situation has led to low water availability in the state's reservoirs, where liquid levels have reached just 17.3%. “This represents a 42% drop compared to 2023, putting the main wheat-producing state in jeopardy,” said Juan Carlos Anaya, President, GCMA.  

Luis Cruz, President, Association of Farmers’ Organizations of Southern Sonora (AOASS), noted that there are only about 18,000ha of durum wheat between the Yaqui and Mayo Valleys, with Mayo accounting for approximately 15,000ha. In contrast, the Yaqui Valley planted just 3,000ha out of the 160,000ha of this cereal sown in the previous cycle.  

The agricultural leader explained that Sonora previously produced 1.5Mt of wheat, of which 700,000t were consumed locally, while the remainder was exported to various global markets. However, under the current circumstances, production is projected to reach its lowest level in the past 30 years, leading to record imports of both bread wheat and durum wheat, stressed GCMA. Imports are expected to reach 5.2Mt, a 2.7% increase compared to 2023.  

Baja California is also expected to see a 30.6% drop in durum wheat production, reaching just 138,300t compared to 199,365t in 2023. Similarly, Sinaloa experienced a drastic 90.7% decline in grain production during the period, with only 3,705t produced in 2024 compared to 39,783t in 2023, according to data from the Agricultural and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP).