Mexico Heavy Vehicle Output Plunges 59% Amid Trade Risks

Mexico’s heavy vehicle industry is experiencing its sharpest contraction in five years, as production, exports, and sales slump amid uncertainty over a potential 25% US tariff and the future of the USMCA.

According to INEGI, Mexican truck manufacturers produced 6,857 heavy vehicles in September 2025, a 59.3% year-over-year decline. Exports totaled 5,196 units, down 58.3% from September 2024. These represent the lowest monthly figures since 2018, according to the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor Producers (ANPACT) and the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA).

From January to September 2025, total production reached 106,168 units, 34.6% below last year, while exports totaled 87,816 units, a 29.1% decline. Domestic sales fell for the ninth consecutive month, with 3,358 units sold in September, 34.5% fewer than the same month in 2024.

“This is not a crisis, but a very complex situation,” said Rogelio Arzate, President, ANPACT. “These results reflect an adverse environment, worsened by potential tariffs and a weakening domestic market. Fleet renewal is essential, but urgent programs are needed to counter this trend.”

The potential 25% US tariff, expected to take effect on November 1, has added market volatility. “We are still waiting for official details from the US government. Most information so far comes from social media, so we prefer not to speculate,” Arzate added.

The uncertainty has already affected buying behavior, with US companies reducing imports from Mexico. “Uncertainty over the US commercial relationship and USMCA framework largely explains the market’s poor performance,” said Guillermo Rosales, President, AMDA.

AMDA projects heavy vehicle sales of 40,210 units in 2025, a 29% decrease from 2024. In September, cargo vehicle sales dropped 33% to 2,712 units, while passenger vehicles fell 40% to 646 units. Cumulative sales from January to September showed a 28% decline in cargo and a 27% drop in passenger vehicles. Cargo sales remain 1.1% below 2019 levels, and passenger vehicles are 14.1% below pre-pandemic volumes.

Both ANPACT and AMDA have urged policymakers to preserve the trilateral USMCA framework, warning that moving to bilateral agreements would weaken North America’s competitiveness.

“It is not desirable for North America to operate under bilateral agreements instead of the trilateral treaty. Bilateral deals are less effective. We want a trilateral treaty,” said Rosales, emphasizing that economic integration is crucial for North America to remain competitive against emerging markets.