AI Bubble Threatens Mexico’s Manufacturing Stability

The global economy faces a structural correction risk due a possible overvaluation of the AI ecosystem, which relies on a small group of corporations for market capitalization, warn experts. A potential contraction in this sector would directly affect the macroeconomic stability of Mexico due its deep manufacturing integration with the United States.

The disparity between valuations and actual return on investment highlights a systemic vulnerability. "The risk for the market is that it is underestimating this difference between theoretical useful life and actual useful life... A serious deterioration is not necessary; it is enough for growth expectations to stop improving at the rate that the market already is discounting," says Franco Macchiavelli, Head of Analysis, Admiral Markets Group. In this scenario, market stability would not depend solely on profitability, but on the capacity to maintain exponential growth rates indefinitely.

As of December 2025, the technological landscape has shifted from speculative growth bets to a perception of critical infrastructure. The Nasdaq-100 index is trading above 24,000 points, driven by the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla), which represent 35% of the total value of the S&P 500. This concentration of power originated in the cycle between 2020 and 2023, where forced digital adoption and massive monetary stimulus increased the Net Present Value (NPV) of future cash flows.

However, analysts such as Michael Burry and Julien Garran warn that overvaluation levels exceed historical precedents. Garran says that the misallocation of capital in the United States — encompassing AI, venture capital, and crypto assets — is 17 times greater than the dot-com bubble and four times greater than the 2008 real estate bubble. The dependence of the S&P 500 on a handful of companies is significant. As of Oct. 31, 2025, just 20 companies accounted for 50.8% of the total market value of the index, but those companies generated only 9.1% of its total profits, according to Yahoo! Finance.

The Whip Effect on the Mexican Economy

This bubble bursting could have severe repercussions on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a global correction could eliminate up to US$15 trillion in global wealth, triggering a recession similar to the 2008 crisis. For Mexico, this scenario is a direct operational risk for its export sector and foreign exchange earnings.

The trade integration of North America implies that any slowdown in demand for technology and capital goods in the United States transmits almost immediately to industrial clusters in Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon. These states, which are pillars for the export of semiconductors, industrial equipment, and auto parts, would face a critical reduction in production orders.

Furthermore, nearshoring, which supports growth projections for the second half of the decade, rests on the premise that the technology sector will maintain sustained growth. An AI bubble collapse would force the revision or postponement of long-term Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects. This financial stress would coincide with the USMCA review in 2026, adding exchange rate volatility and pressure on the Mexican peso during a period of high political and economic sensitivity.

While leaders such as Mary Callahan, CEO, JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, defend AI as an efficiency opportunity that corporations cannot ignore, others suggest the market operates under irrational exuberance. A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) indicates that 95% of companies that invested in G

enerative AI have not seen returns. For Mexico, monitoring these technical indicators in Wall Street is essential, as the stability of its advanced manufacturing is tied to the sustainability of the algorithms and servers of the north.