Energy Security Takes Center Stage Amid Global, Local Risks

As demand continues to rise and climate risks intensify, ensuring energy security will require not only new technologies, but also smarter policy coordination and long-term planning. Whether through innovative models or concrete infrastructure investments, countries like Mexico will need to strike a careful balance between autonomy, affordability, and environmental responsibility, agree experts. 

Energy security refers to the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. It means ensuring a reliable and consistent supply to meet both current and future needs, while also considering environmental and economic sustainability.

To guide policymakers in achieving that balance, the World Energy Council created the Energy Trilemma framework, designed to help evaluate the security, equity, and sustainability of energy systems. While robust models have long existed to measure the cost and environmental footprint of different energy strategies, quantifying energy security has remained more elusive. But a recent study led by researchers at Empa, ETH Zurich, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory aims to change that.

Published in the journal iScience, the study introduces a new framework for quantifying energy security through a five-tier pyramid structure, with quantitative indices for each level. At the base is self-production: how much energy a country can generate from its own resources annually and how that compares with domestic demand. The next level, autonomy, measures reliance on energy imports and the resilience of those supply routes. The third tier, system adequacy, assesses whether energy needs can be met at any given moment using any available source. The fourth, self-sufficiency, examines whether a country can satisfy demand without imports at a specific time. At the top sits autarky, an indicator of whether a country can independently meet its energy needs throughout the entire year.

According to Georgios Mavromatidis, Head, Empa’s Urban Energy Systems Laboratory, and co-author of the study, these levels are interdependent and must be analyzed together. A key strength of the model, he notes, is its ability to account for dynamic factors in modern energy systems. “Modern energy systems are very complex. The pyramid is intended to help assess the various indices correctly and clarify the terminology,” says Mavromatidis.

While the researchers see the model as a work in progress, they have already put it to use by evaluating Switzerland’s current energy security and projecting how it could evolve by 2050. Their findings suggest that a mix of increased domestic generation and diversification of supply sources could significantly boost Switzerland’s energy resilience over the next 25 years.

Zooming out, the International Energy Agency’s latest Global Energy Policy Hub report shows that many countries are adopting similar strategies. As of 2025, 60 of the 84 countries surveyed, which together account for 90% of global energy demand, have oil stockholding policies, while 52 also have oil demand restraint measures in place. For natural gas, 29 countries hold reserves and 49 have implemented demand restraint policies. Mexico appears on both lists, with policies in place for oil and gas stockholding.

Still, Mexico faces unique challenges in securing its energy future. The country relies heavily on imported natural gas, primarily from the United States, while grappling with an aging electricity grid, declining oil production, and shifting regulatory frameworks. These overlapping pressures highlight the urgent need for a more resilient and integrated energy strategy.

“Mexico needs to focus on creating regulatory clarity and transparency, developing unconventional reservoirs, expanding gas infrastructure for production and transportation, and ensuring that renewable energy development is supported by legal stability,” says Fernando Cruz Galván, Director of Energy, Kannbal Consulting.

A  successful long-term strategy will require more than just state-led initiatives, adds Galván. “It is crucial to recognize that Mexico is not an oil-rich country, and that energy security cannot rely solely on PEMEX and CFE. The key lies in effective collaboration between the government and the private sector to develop a joint investment strategy that optimizes available resources and promotes the progressive integration of renewable energy. This approach will enable an orderly energy transition, balancing sustainability with energy security.”

One promising avenue is the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS), especially in combination with renewable generation. These systems can help mitigate the intermittency of solar and wind power, while enabling greater self-sufficiency and grid flexibility.

Marcos Ripoll, CEO, Solar 180, sees BESS as a key part of Mexico’s energy resilience strategy. “These localized systems can operate independently or in conjunction with the national grid, offering communities and businesses enhanced energy security,” he said. “In the face of natural disasters or grid failures, microgrids can sustain operations and reduce the societal impact of outages. With the right investment and policy frameworks, these networks can accelerate rural electrification, support disaster response, and integrate seamlessly with national energy strategies.”