North America’s LNG Export Capacity to Accelerate Through 2029

North America is positioned for a major expansion of liquefied natural gas export capacity by the end of the decade, with the United States, Canada and Mexico expected to add more than 17Bcf/d of new liquefaction capacity by 2029, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. The additions would more than double the region’s export capacity and represent more than half of global LNG growth projected through 2029.

The United States remains the primary driver of this expansion. With 15.4Bcf/d of existing capacity, US developers plan to add 13.9Bcf/d between 2025 and 2029 through a series of Gulf Coast projects. Several terminals, including Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2 and Corpus Christi Stage III, have begun limited cargo shipments despite not having entered commercial operation. Five additional projects are under construction after reaching final investment decisions: Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, Rio Grande LNG, Woodside Louisiana LNG, Golden Pass LNG and CP2 Phase 1. Pipeline construction delays remain a key risk for the timing of future export flows.

Canada is advancing capacity on the Pacific Coast. LNG Canada shipped its first cargo from Train 1 in July 2025 and is expected to reach full capacity of 1.84Bcf/d in 2026. A proposed second phase would double the facility’s capacity after 2029. Two more projects, Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG, with a combined capacity of 0.7Bcf/d, are scheduled to begin exports between 2027 and 2028. Their location shortens shipping times to Asian markets compared with exports from the Gulf Coast.

Mexico is emerging as a strategic component of this regional expansion, even though its new capacity is comparatively smaller. Two LNG export projects with a combined 0.6Bcf/d are under construction. The Fast LNG Altamira platform off the East Coast, supplied with US gas through the Sur de Texas–Tuxpan pipeline, produced Mexico’s first LNG export cargo in August 2024. On the Pacific Coast, Energía Costa Azul is adding 0.4Bcf/d of capacity, also reliant on US feedgas. Both projects support Mexico’s shift toward becoming a re-export and transit hub for North American natural gas.

Implications of North American LNG Growth for Mexico

Mexico’s geographic position and growing midstream network are central to this shift. The country’s pipeline interconnections with the United States, along with access to both the Gulf and Pacific basins, have strengthened its role as a distribution corridor for regional gas flows. Industry analyses note that Mexico is positioned to expand from a net importer to a commercial platform that can process, store, and re-export natural gas to global markets. This evolution aligns with private-sector interest in leveraging LNG infrastructure to connect US supply with Asian and Pacific demand.

However, the strategy also raises structural questions for Mexico’s domestic energy system. The country remains heavily dependent on US pipeline gas for power generation and industry, and its emerging LNG capacity is not tied to increased local production. Independent analysts warn that large-scale export-oriented buildouts could raise wholesale gas prices and affect electricity affordability for consumers and industrial users, especially if global LNG markets tighten. Growing reliance on cross-border gas flows also places greater importance on regulatory stability, permitting timelines and pipeline reliability.

The broader geopolitical context adds another layer of complexity. US energy diplomacy has increasingly centered on securing long-term LNG influence, encouraging partner countries to sign multi-decade supply contracts. This approach offers supply stability but can lock importing nations into fossil fuel systems with long-term financial commitments. Global analyses indicate that as renewable energy and storage technologies become more cost-competitive, long-term LNG infrastructure could carry opportunity costs for emerging markets. These dynamics are relevant for Mexico, whose energy policy prioritizes sovereignty and domestic production but must also respond to regional market pressures.

Latin America is already grappling with the implications of this shift. Analysts note that new LNG import infrastructure across the region, including in Mexico, can reinforce long-term dependence on fossil fuels and divert investment away from renewable generation and electrification. The United States has also demonstrated willingness to use tariffs to influence energy behavior, as seen in its recent tariff increases on India for continued purchases of Russian energy. Such actions signal the potential for trade and energy policy linkages to affect future decisions in Mexico and across the hemisphere.

Mexico’s role in the regional LNG network is therefore multifaceted. The country stands to benefit economically from serving as a distribution hub while also expanding its influence in global gas markets. At the same time, increased exposure to LNG volatility and structural reliance on imported gas require careful coordination between regulators, state-owned companies and private investors. Future policy decisions will influence whether LNG infrastructure reinforces long-term national strategies or creates new dependencies during a period of rapid global energy transition.

North America’s combined LNG additions through 2029 place the region at the center of global supply growth. The timing and execution of US, Canadian, and Mexican projects will shape international gas markets and regional energy security, with Mexico increasingly positioned at the crossroads of these shifts.