US Threatens IEA Withdrawal Over 'Politicized' Energy Forecasts

The United States is considering a significant shift in its relationship with the International Energy Agency (IEA), potentially withdrawing from the Paris-based organization or forcing a reform of its forecasting methodology. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the Trump administration views the IEA's energy transition projections as "unrealistic" and "politicized," clashing with the administration's focus on fossil fuels as a core component of energy security.

In a recent interview, Secretary Wright stated he informed IEA Head Fatih Birol that the agency must either reform its forecasting methods or face a potential US withdrawal. This development reflects growing tensions between the Trump administration’s energy priorities and IEA’s increasing emphasis on clean energy transitions. Wright's criticism centers around IEA's reports and projections, which he and other critics argue are overly optimistic about renewable energy adoption and fail to adequately prioritize energy security.

The controversy stems from IEA's inclusion of scenarios that project a stabilization of global oil demand by the end of the decade, largely driven by policies favoring electric vehicles and the broader energy transition. Wright contends these projections do not accurately reflect real market behavior. This stance aligns with the Trump administration's broader energy agenda, which prioritizes maximizing domestic oil and gas production to bolster energy security and economic growth, potentially slowing the growth of alternatives like wind, solar, and electric vehicles.

"We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates, or we will withdraw," said Wright. He expressed a preference for reform, hoping his discussions with Birol could influence a return to a more balanced approach in the IEA's modeling. Wright's concerns particularly target the IEA’s reliance on models like the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which assumes governments will fully implement their clean energy commitments, leading to what he argues is an underestimation of fossil fuel demand, against Current Policies Scenario (CPS). Wright previously criticized the IEA’s forecast of peak oil demand by 2029 as "nonsensical" in late June, asserting that the agency's methodologies have become "politicized."

A spokesperson for the IEA acknowledged the feedback. "The IEA welcomes feedback on our work and attaches great importance to our dialogue with the Department of Energy and other branches of the US Government."

The debate could have significant implications for US geopolitical leadership in global energy matters, given its historical role as a main financial and technical contributor to the IEA. A US withdrawal, which accounts for 18% of the IEA's overall budget, would significantly cut the agency's funding and undermine its global influence.