Mexico Forecasts 62% Rise in Trade Tax Revenue on New Tariffs

Mexico’s tax revenue from foreign trade is projected to increase by 62% in 2026, driven by the application of higher tariffs on imports of more than 1,400 products from China and other countries that lack a free trade agreement with Mexico. The measure was approved by the Chamber of Deputies early Wednesday morning.

According to projections in the 2026 Federal Revenue Law (LIF), 2026 projections from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), foreign trade tax revenue is projected to reach MX$254.757 billion next year.

The reform to the Tariff Law imposes duties of up to 50% on 1,463 products starting in 2026. These include:

• 706 tariff fractions from the textile industry

• 249 products of iron and steel

• 94 products from the automotive sector

• 81 products from the plastics sector

Gloria Rocío Estrada, President of the Foreign Trade Technical Commission of the Mexican College of Public Accountants, explained that the tariff increase aligns with the implementation of Plan México, the strategy aimed at import substitution to transform industrial policy and reactivate the economy.

Estrada stated that this substitution implies that imports should begin to be produced domestically or acquired regionally from countries with which Mexico holds a trade agreement. The increase in duties also responds to the "new regional commercial scenario" prompted by tariffs from US President Donald Trump, requiring Mexico to "align ourselves."

Estrada confirmed that the projected 62% growth in foreign trade tax revenue is a direct result of the higher tariffs. However, she noted that revenue will also increase due to greater fiscalization of foreign trade by tax authorities, and the recent reform to the Customs Law (approved in October), which will impose stricter controls on import and export processes.

Estrada called the customs reform and the tariff hike the "perfect formula" to boost foreign trade tax revenue in 2026. The tax authority announced in October that it will audit 3,000 foreign trade taxpayers next year, representing 2.5% of the total in that sector.

Legislative Adjustments and Trade Partners

The original tariff initiative, proposed by President Claudia Sheinbaum in the Economic Package 2026, was amended by deputies, who modified 60% of the initial proposal. Specifically, the originally proposed tariff was reduced by 28% for 974 products, such as wool textiles. This adjustment followed negotiations, particularly with China, which is Mexico's second-largest importer after the US, aimed at mitigating the originally proposed widespread tariff increase.

Estrada clarified that while the tariff increase is widely interpreted as targeting China and Asian nations, it is generalized, applying to all countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement. She pointed out that Asian nations such as Malaysia, Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam do have trade agreements and are therefore not the primary target.

The collection of import taxes has already grown 21% in real terms so far in 2025, according to the SHCP, making it the fastest-growing tax category, though it accounts for only 3% of total federal tax revenue. This existing growth is attributed to greater fiscalization by tax authorities and increased efficiency at the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM).