Mexico’s Remittances Fall 1.7% in October, Mark Seventh Decline

Remittance inflows to Mexico reached US$5.6 billion in October 2025, a modest annual decline of 1.7%, according to Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico). Despite a slight monthly increase compared to September, the figure marks the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year contraction, a slump not seen since the 18-month decline that followed the US 2008/2009 recession.

Total remittances for the first ten months of 2025 amounted to US$51.3 billion, down 5.1% from the US$54 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. Analysts have emphasized the significance of this sustained drop.

Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis, Grupo Base, highlighted the severity of the trend: “This is the first annual decline for the same period since 2013 and the largest for the same period since 2009.”

Transaction Volume and Value Trends

The downturn is largely driven by reduced transaction frequency. In October, the number of remittance operations fell 5.4% year-over-year. The accumulated transaction count through October reached 13.9 million, 7.06 million fewer than during the same period in 2024. According to Siller, the trend indicates that “many people in Mexico who received remittances last year have stopped receiving them in 2025, and the number continues to grow.”

Meanwhile, the average transfer amount continues to rise, consistent with migrants sending fewer but larger payments. The average remittance in October was US$403, a 4.13% annual increase. Although the frequency of transfers fell 5.4%, the value per transfer increased by roughly 4%.

Contributing Factors and Regional Context

Analysts attribute the decline to two main factors: weakening labor conditions in the United States and heightened political caution among migrants.

The US labor market has softened considerably. Non-farm payroll growth averaged 76,000 jobs per month during the first nine months of 2025 — nearly half the 153,800 monthly average recorded during the same period in 2024. This represents a 24.3% drop, marking the weakest job creation since 2021.

Stricter immigration enforcement is also weighing on flows. In October 2025, arrests by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) rose 67.6% compared with October 2024. Siller noted a strong statistical relationship between enforcement activity and transfers: “The annual growth in the number of people detained by ICE shows an inverse correlation of 0.70 with the annual variation in remittance transactions.”

However, this explanation is partially challenged by strong growth in remittances to other Latin American countries. In October 2025, remittances increased 24.0% to Honduras, 19.5% to Guatemala, 16.3% to El Salvador, and 5.4% to Colombia. This divergence suggests the decline may be tied to “a lower rate of integration of new Mexican migrants into the US labor market over at least the last two years, compared to other Latin American migrant groups.”

Transfer Methods and Outlook

Digital channels continue to dominate, with 99.1% of remittances from January–October sent via electronic transfer. For the first time in five years of available data, deposits into bank accounts surpassed cash pickups: 50.1% of electronic transfers were deposited directly into accounts, while 49.9% were paid out in cash.

Mexican residents sending money abroad also reduced activity. Outflows totaled US$98 million in October 2025, an 8.0% annual contraction. Cumulative outflows for the first ten months of the year reached US$970 million, down 12.2% year-over-year.

The remittance account surplus for January–October 2025 reached US$50.374 billion, a 4.9% annual decline. Over the 12-month period from November 2024 to October 2025, total inflows reached US$62.0 billion.

Analysts expect remittances to remain a critical source of income for millions of households. Despite the downward trend, projections place 2026 inflows near US$60 billion.