War, Climate and Disease: A Global Nexus

Climate change, a global crisis that disregards national borders, requires unified action. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions arising from conflicts pose significant challenges that threaten to jeopardize upcoming COP28 climate change negotiations scheduled for November in Dubai. The protracted resolution of these negotiations threatens to accelerate the emergence of a Disease X, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. 

“[H]ow far you can go with that positive momentum always depends on the cycles of violence that we constantly see because they do raise tensions and they do make it extremely difficult to move forward with some of the inked agreements, let alone, bringing more agreements to the fore,” Merissa Khurma, Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center.

Regional interests, intensified by warfare, obstruct the path to consensus, says Kevin Book, Managing Director ClearView Energy Partners. This instability presents substantial challenges in reaching agreements, particularly when regional interests are aggravated by conflict. Moreover, the looming risk of escalating oil and gas prices further hampers nations' in their transition toward renewable energy sources. The complex interplay of regional politics, economic interests and environmental concerns underscores the intricate web of challenges facing international climate negotiations.

In preparation for the upcoming COP 28, Saudi Arabia hosted a climate summit for the Middle East and North Africa. During this summit, participants underscored the importance of setting aside ideologies to effectively navigate the climate negotiations. “To make truly game-changing progress we must separate facts from fiction, reality from fantasies, impact from ideology and we must ensure that we avoid the traps of division and destruction,” warned Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, UAE Official, who will be leading this year’s talks. 

In July, António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, asserted that the world has entered a phase of "global boiling," marked by unprecedented heat waves impacting communities globally. These alarming temperature increases are compelling animals to migrate in search of suitable habitats and resources, further disrupting ecosystems and altering the geographical distribution of various species. This ecological upheaval presents a concerning trend as it heightens the risk of zoonotic diseases—pathogens that transfer from animals to humans—spreading more readily. 

These convergences raise the specter of Disease X, a potential health crisis that could spread as rapidly as measles and exhibit a fatality rate comparable to Ebola, reaching as high as 67%. This combination of contagiousness and high mortality underscores the need for global vigilance in addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, ecosystem disruption and the increased risk of zoonotic disease transmission.

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