Drought May Force US-Mexico Water Treaty Talks: Experts

Persistent droughts impacting the border between Mexico and the United States have led experts to suggest renegotiating the 1944 water treaty. This comes as Mexico faces challenges in meeting its water delivery obligations to the United States.   

Jorge Fuentes, Director of Projects, Water Advisory Council, noted that while Mexico has historically received more water from the Colorado River than it delivers to the United States via the Rio Bravo under the treaty, the country is facing a critical situation. He stated that Mexico has delivered significantly less water from the Rio Bravo than required in the current five-year cycle, which concludes in October 2025. “Mexico has only delivered 600 million m³ of water out of the approximately 2.3 billion m³ it was supposed to deliver. We are very behind on the allocation we need to provide," he said.

Fuentes explained that reduced water levels in northern Mexico's dams, a consequence of prolonged drought, have made it difficult to comply with the established commitments. He added that officials from both the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) have acknowledged decreased deliveries from both sides due to the drought while pointing out that Mexico remains the net beneficiary of the treaty. As a potential preventative measure, Fuentes mentioned the treatment and reuse of wastewater in border states, recognizing it as a medium-term solution.   

Jair Aguilar, Academic, UNAM, suggested that recent remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding the water situation are part of a strategy driven by Republican interests. He argued that the issue is not Mexico withholding water but a lack of available water due to the drought.

The 1944 treaty guarantees Mexico an annual average of 1.85 billion m³ of water from the Colorado River, while the United States is guaranteed an annual average of 431.7 million m³ from the Rio Bravo. According to IBWC data, allocations to Mexico have remained below 1.7 billion m³ since 2022, and US allocations from the Rio Bravo have not reached 400 million m³ since 2020. The treaty stipulates that in case of drought, Mexico must replenish any water delivery shortfalls in the subsequent five-year cycle, in this case from 2025 to 2030. There is no similar stipulation for the US regarding shortfalls in Mexico, reports El Economista. 

President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that the water treaty is fair and ruled out renegotiation, emphasizing that the United States delivers more water than Mexico due to the natural water availability in each location. Meanwhile, Mexico's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Julio Berdegué, affirmed the country's commitment to meeting its water delivery obligations to the United States despite the severe drought in the north. Berdegué reported that a conversation with US officials allowed for the ratification of the treaty and progress in technical coordination between the two countries.