Industrial FIBRAs to Grow Despite Trump Tariffs: MONEX

The industrial segment is expected to continue leading the real estate market for the fifth consecutive year, despite Donald Trump’s tariff threats, reports MONEX. In November 2024, the FIBRAs Index and the S&P/BMV IPC registered declines of 6.3% and 1.9%, respectively, adds the financial institution.

According to MONEX’s Report on FIBRAs (FIBROMETRO), these adjustments brought the year-to-date performance of the FIBRAs Index to 16.3% and the S&P/BMV IPC to 13.4%. Despite mixed developments around nearshoring and cautious sentiment among some investors, industrial FIBRAs continued to attract new investments. The industrial real estate sector remains a key area of growth, driven by strategic expansions and the potential for mergers, as highlighted by recent transactions such as the acquisition of FIBRA Terrafina’s assets.

While the outlook for the industrial sector remains positive, attention is focused on the commercial dynamics between Mexico and the United States, particularly the potential impact of tariff policies under the upcoming US administration. In 2025, the industrial sector is expected to maintain its momentum, supported by nearshoring activities and high occupancy rates. However, challenges related to trade and tariffs could influence the pace of growth, MONEX says.

In the retail segment, lower inflation, remittances, and social programs are anticipated to contribute to a favorable environment. In the office segment, recent data indicates continued improvement in occupancy rates following the post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery, with expectations that corporate normalization will drive better metrics for this sector.

Key factors for 2025 include anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Mexico’s central bank (Banxico), as well as a moderated inflation outlook in the United States, which contrasts with ongoing inflationary challenges in Mexico. These developments will be critical for lease renewals and overall sector dynamics, says MONEX. Additionally, investment in new acquisitions and developments, as well as strategic consolidation efforts, are expected to shape the market. 

According to MONEX, the industrial sector is projected to lead the real estate market for the fifth consecutive year, followed by retail properties. The positive trends observed in recent years, particularly in the commercial and office segments, underscore a gradual recovery and continued investor interest in Mexico’s real estate market.