Temperature Increase Could Exceed 1.5°C in the Next Five Years

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported an 80% chance that the planet will warm above 1.5°C over the next five years, posing a risk to public health and the global economy. To meet the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target, around 7-9Bt of CO2 per year would have to be removed from the atmosphere by mid-century, specialists underscore.

The Annual Report on the State of the Global Climate developed by WMO revealed a 47% chance that the average global temperature between 2024-2028 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, compared to 32% in last year's report for the period 2023-2027. This probability rises to 80% when considering that the planet's average annual temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.

There is also an 86% chance that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, surpassing 2023, currently the warmest year on record. This is indicative of the climate's state over the past year, with the average global temperature from June 2023 to May 2024 being the highest ever recorded, at 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900, according to the Copernicus Climate Change ERA5 dataset.

In 2015, world leaders committed to keep the global average temperature increase below 2°C under the Paris Agreement in 2015. Above this figure, climate change becomes increasingly dangerous for humans and the planet's survival. According to the UN, the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C could determine the extinction or survival of some coastal communities and small island states, destroying the livelihoods of 300 million people.

The effects of climate change are already visible, including heat waves, more extreme precipitation and droughts, glacier melting, accelerated sea level rises, and ocean warming. At the national level, UNAM researchers warn that the country will soon experience the highest temperatures in history, reaching 45°C in some states. These high temperatures are a direct threat to public health. In 2023, Mexico's Ministry of Health recorded 112 deaths associated with extreme heat.

"We must urgently do more to reduce GHG emissions, or we will pay an increasingly higher price in terms of trillions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather, and significant damage to the environment and biodiversity," emphasized Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, WMO.

The 194 countries, along with the European Union, that are part of the Paris Agreement set individual national climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which detail their plans to reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate impacts. For instance, in its latest NDC update, Mexico committed to a 35% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030. However, a recent study indicates that while reducing emissions is the primary method to achieve net-zero, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is crucial to reversing climate change.

The annual State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report is a combined effort of over 50 international experts. It is the world-leading scientific assessment of how much carbon dioxide removal will be needed to limit climate change, and whether the world is on track to deliver. This year's report was led by the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.

CDR refers to approaches that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, as defined by the US Department of Energy. While CDR is a way of mitigation, it is not limited to reduction or prevention measures but uses different methods and technology to actively extract CO2 from the atmosphere. To date, 2Bt of CO2 are being removed by CDR every year, mostly through conventional methods like tree planting. Yet, more efficient CDR methods must be rapidly scaled up to address climate change in line with the Paris Agreement, authors suggest. Innovative methods like biochar, enhanced rock weathering, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) only contribute 1.3 Mt/year, less than 0.1% of the total, highlights the document.

Researchers urge governments to implement policies that will increase demand for carbon removals. These should include embedding CDR policies into countries’ NDCs, as well as developing better monitoring, reporting, and verification systems for CDR. At present, much of the demand for CDR is coming from voluntary commitments by companies to buy carbon removal credits.

“There are some encouraging signs in the growth and diversity of CDR research and innovations. But these are tempered strongly by sparse and precarious long-term demand. Governments have a decisive role to play now in creating the conditions for CDR to scale sustainably,” stated Steve Smith, Researcher, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.