How Mexican Businesses Can Lead the 2025 Holiday Logistics Surge
STORY INLINE POST
By Francisco Ricaurte | President -
Thu, 10/16/2025 - 06:00
Each year, the "peak season" in logistics represents the period with the highest demand for products and services, driven by holidays such as Christmas, Black Friday, and other major sales events that generate a spike in consumption and, consequently, shipments. The 2025 season presents an additional challenge: recent tariff changes. While these represent a hurdle, they also constitute an opportunity for Mexican businesses that have agile and precise logistics strategies capable of meeting market demand effectively.
Despite these changes, trade flows are expected to continue. Mexico’s Ministry of Economy projects sales exceeding MX$200 billion (US$11 billion) during Buen Fin 2025. On a global scale, Salesforce reported record-breaking numbers for Black Friday 2024, with US$74.4 billion spent in just 24 hours, a 5% increase from the previous year. These figures illustrate a high-activity environment that demands careful logistical planning and well-informed strategic decisions.
Mexico maintains a position of clear advantage. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the national economy is expected to grow 0.8% (+0.4) in 2025. Nevertheless, anticipating changes is crucial to preserving competitiveness and economic momentum. The country has demonstrated resilience, supported by a strong network of trade agreements and an export sector that continues to drive economic expansion. The holiday season will test this adaptive capacity, and having strategic allies will be essential to sustaining growth.
Currently, Mexico is the most important partner of the United States and one of the least affected by recent tariff changes, with a 15.8% share of bilateral trade, according to the US Census Bureau. In the first half of 2025, Mexican exports to the United States grew 6.3% year-on-year, reaching US$264.383 billion, also reported by the US Census Bureau. This bilateral relationship continues to offer advantages for companies that export correctly, including consolidated shipments, detailed knowledge of products and components, and complete documentation. However, these benefits may change as USMCA rules are updated, making strategic planning indispensable.
Beyond the United States, market diversification represents a key opportunity. Mexico has trade agreements facilitating expansion into Europe, Latin America, and Canada. The EU-Mexico Trade Agreement (TLCUEM), for example, provides clear rules, legal certainty, and a favorable environment for investment and international growth. Similarly, the USMCA with Canada continues to offer competitive advantages despite certain regulatory adjustments. Mexico’s bilateral relationship with Canada is also reinforced through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which strengthens export conditions to countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
These treaties and agreements demonstrate that Mexico has all the tools necessary to sustain economic dynamism through the end of the year. However, from my perspective, efficient execution depends not only on commercial frameworks but also on companies’ ability to implement smart logistics solutions. In critical moments such as this, the choice of a logistics partner with global experience and local expertise is not optional, it is imperative.
Take, for example, the consolidation of multiple shipments. I have noticed that this practice has evolved from a cost-saving tactic to a strategic necessity. By integrating different orders into a single logistics movement, companies optimize transport capacity, reduce costs, and simplify their supply chains. Providers such as UPS, with strong global networks, have demonstrated that well-executed consolidation can strike a balance between efficiency and regulatory compliance, even under the pressures of peak season.
Documentation also plays a critical role. Clear and precise knowledge of products, their components, and tariff classifications not only facilitates border crossings but also prevents delays and additional costs. In an environment of regulatory change, properly prepared invoices and certificates can mean the difference between a smooth clearance process and a problematic one.
Streamlining operations also requires reducing unnecessary procedures. I have observed how companies that embrace automation and digital integration gain an advantage. When data flows seamlessly across commercial, operational, and customs areas, delays shrink, and teams are freed up to focus on higher-value activities.
Delivery times, of course, remain one of the most visible aspects of logistics. Customers don't see the complexity of cross-border paperwork or multimodal planning; what they see is whether their product arrives on time. In my opinion, this is one of the clearest ways that logistics directly influences customer confidence, and UPS understands this, as demonstrated by its strategic distribution network and multimodal solutions that ensure timely and consistent deliveries during peak season.
Finally, tariffs and taxes must be managed proactively. I understand that many companies treat this issue as secondary. Anticipating costs, ensuring regulatory compliance, and adopting transparent models such as Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) can protect competitiveness while building credibility with consumers.
The 2025 peak season will be a decisive moment. Companies that integrate these practices into their operating models will not only be better prepared to face immediate challenges but will also strengthen their long-term competitiveness. In this scenario, having a logistics partner with global experience and local expertise, such as UPS, becomes a key factor in transforming uncertainty into opportunity.
Sources:
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/empresas/preven-ventas-200-000-mdp-buen-20250908-776345.html
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