Mexico’s Mining Sector Under USMCA

Mining plays a central role in Mexico’s economic development and within the USMCA framework, said Pedro Rivero González, President, CAMIMEX. “Recognizing mining under the USMCA as a strategic sector is not a corporate request; it is a matter of regional economic security,” he stated during the XXXVI International Mining Convention 2025.

“This convention allows us to demonstrate that our industry goes beyond temporary trends. We aim to reaffirm its place in the public consciousness as what it has always been: the foundational activity behind every industrial chain,” he said.

Rivero also acknowledged the work of Marcelo Ebrard, Minister of Economy, in promoting stability and long-term planning. As of December 2024, Mexico’s mining sector employed 416,663 direct workers and nearly 1.5 million indirect workers. The industry contributed 2.77% of national GDP and 8.70% of industrial GDP.

Mining and USMCA

Earlier, Carlos Pascual, Senior Vice President, S&P Commodity Insights, said mining represents one of the most significant opportunities in the upcoming USMCA renegotiation, especially as copper tariffs have increased uncertainty. He added that North America holds a combination of minerals and metals with strategic importance, crucial for competing with China.

Pascual emphasized the need to strengthen mining within USMCA. He noted that major automakers recently warned that production could halt if China restricted exports of essential minerals. Since these resources exist within the region, he said the negotiation should prioritize conditions that enable extraction and processing in North America.

When asked how to mobilize the investment needed to address competitiveness and security challenges, Pascual compared mining to the energy sector, noting that both require long-term certainty. He pointed to uncertainty on both sides of the border: in the United States, tariff policies raise questions about market access for Mexican exports, while in Mexico, concerns relate to the structure of the electricity system, the 54/46 generation rule for state and private participation, and the functioning of the judiciary.

The 2026 USMCA Review

The 2026 USMCA review will serve as a test of the region’s ability to coordinate policy and maintain economic cohesion. Under Article 34.7, the three countries must decide in July 2026 whether to extend the agreement to 2042, keep it subject to annual reviews, or allow it to expire in 2036. Although not a deadline, the date is a key decision point that will affect investor confidence, regional integration, and the ability to compete with China.

The regional outlook shows that the USMCA review and ongoing tariff negotiations are interconnected. Unresolved disputes could push the talks into 2027 or later. 

To manage the 2026 review, CSIS experts note that Mexico and Canada should align their positions before the July 2026 FTC meeting. Presenting a unified stance on dispute resolution, market access, and tariffs would strengthen their negotiating power and reduce the risk of isolation. They also recommend establishing a clear negotiation sequence, defining the order, scope, and timing of discussions, particularly where Section 232 and IEEPA tariff issues intersect with the review. A structured timeline would prevent technical matters, such as auto rules of origin or digital trade provisions, from becoming entangled with political cycles or national security debates.

Finally, they highlight the importance of maintaining predictable communication with markets. Coordinated statements and transparent messaging would help reduce uncertainty and reinforce North America’s position as a reliable production hub.