Mining and Metals Set for Cautious Optimism in 2026

Mineral and metal markets are set for a cautiously optimistic 2026, with prices supported by the global push for net-zero, supply constraints, and a race for critical minerals, even as China’s property slump continues to weigh on base metals, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit.

In its newest mining and metals forecast, BMI characterizes 2026 as “cautiously optimistic,” highlighting that reduced tariff uncertainties and robust demand from sectors tied to decarbonization are bolstering the market. At the same time, analysts warn that the ongoing slowdown in China’s property sector will continue to weigh on base metals, constraining potential price increases despite tight supply.

For precious metals, BMI expects gold to average higher in 2026 than in 2025, although prices are likely to ease later in the year as global monetary stimulus diminishes and the US Federal Reserve wraps up its rate-cutting cycle.

Looking forward, industrial policy is expected to continue playing a central role in securing critical minerals, with the bulk of activity concentrated in the EU and United States. Governments are focusing on expanding domestic mining and processing capabilities while simultaneously ensuring access to international supply through strategic investments, partnerships, and offtake deals.

BMI also points out that China is set to intensify its efforts to dominate critical mineral value chains. Beijing is expected to speed up exploration, increase targeted capacities in battery and rare earth sectors, promote greener manufacturing practices, and deepen relationships with resource-rich nations under clearer outbound investment regulations. Recent tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports underscore that protectionist measures will continue to play a central role in China’s strategy.

Energy Transition Drives M&A and Strategic Partnerships in Mining
The push for critical materials needed for the energy transition is expected to keep M&A activity strong through 2026. Mining firms are likely to focus on deals that boost their holdings in copper, lithium, and rare earth elements. While large-scale capital projects will continue, phased and brownfield developments are becoming more common as companies manage rising costs and navigate regulatory uncertainty.

BMI also expects continued investment in frontier markets, despite ongoing concerns over resource nationalism. Collaboration between mining operations and sectors such as technology, automotive, and aerospace is also projected to grow next year. BMI highlights that supply bottlenecks could slow development in areas like AI, robotics, and defense, encouraging downstream manufacturers to secure materials directly from mining sites.

From 2025 Priorities to 2026 Trends

BMI’s 2026 outlook emphasizes strategic positioning, M&A, and the global race for critical minerals, building on the priorities that shaped the mining sector in 2025. According to EY’s Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities for Mining and Metals Companies in 2025, companies focused on managing capital, advancing environmental stewardship, and responding to rising resource nationalism. Investment strategies included mergers, divestments, and joint ventures to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty while creating long-term value. Environmental efforts, from waste management to water conservation, remained central, while geopolitical risks influenced ownership structures, regulatory compliance, and stakeholder engagement.

Resource and reserve depletion emerged as a key challenge, ranking fifth. Companies must improve extraction and optimization of critical minerals to meet rising demand while protecting the environment. “This complicated problem is driven by interwoven factors. Declining ore grades increase the costs of extraction. Exploration budgets are up, but so are costs, and fewer discoveries are being made,” the report notes.

New projects ranked eighth, with the sector facing the unprecedented task of producing more mineral ores in the next 30 years than in the previous 7,000. Regulatory delays, high capital costs, skilled labor shortages, and rising royalties and taxes make timely execution difficult.

Although governance, cyber risks, digital strategies, and workforce issues fell out of the Top 10, EY warns these remain critical. Talent gaps and increasing digital integration make cyber and digital risks part of daily operations. “The de-prioritization of governance was unexpected and perhaps worrying, given miners are progressing new projects in countries with potentially weaker regulatory oversight,” the report adds.