National Protectionism Gains Momentum Amid Critical Mineral Race

National protectionism is rising, with 72 countries implementing measures to secure access to critical minerals essential for strategic industries, according to global risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft. The firm noted that while countries like Mexico continue to use nationalization to control their mineral wealth, Western economies are adopting a mix of trade restrictions, investment controls, and sustainability requirements to protect autonomy and foster collaboration.

Verisk Maplecroft’s Resource Nationalism Index (RNI), which tracks interventionist policies in the energy and mining sectors across 198 countries, shows an increase in protectionist measures over the past five years. In Europe, major economies like Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Poland have seen notable declines in their RNI rankings. Germany, for example, dropped 122 positions following the nationalization of Russian energy assets after the invasion of Ukraine. The European Union is also intensifying efforts to reduce reliance on non-European sources through initiatives such as the European Raw Materials Alliance (ERMA) and the Critical Raw Materials Act, which focus on sustainable mining practices, recycling, and strategic partnerships to secure mineral supplies.

North America has also implemented robust measures to safeguard critical mineral supply chains. The United States has focused on passing the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act to strengthen domestic production and limit Chinese involvement in key sectors. Canada has advanced its Critical Minerals Strategy and amended the Investment Canada Act to tighten foreign investment regulations, aligning sustainability goals with resource security.

In Mexico, key minerals like lithium were nationalized in 2023, restricting their exploitation to state-run entities. Permits for mineral concessions have stalled, reflecting a broader agenda to ensure mineral production benefits national interests. As a result, Mexico ranks among the highest-risk jurisdictions, following Venezuela and Russia, according to the RNI.

Verisk Maplecroft warned that as state rivalries intensify, protectionism and state intervention are likely to drive further fragmentation in the global energy and mining sectors. “We do not expect Western democracies to seek market dominance through State- Owned Enterprises, but rather to form a new partnership between national and corporate interests by offering benefits and incentives to ‘reshore’ supply chains closer to home in geopolitical terms through new alliances. This will create a complex risk landscape for investors across a variety of policy areas that will span the entire value chain.”