From Uncertainty to Ambiguous Openness: 2025 in Mining

The beginning of 2025 was a period of transition for the mining sector. Domestically, the new administration under Claudia Sheinbaum adopted a conciliatory yet ambiguous stance, quietly unblocking permit backlogs while maintaining a freeze on new concessions. Meanwhile, the return of Donald Trump to the White House added a layer of complexity, as threats of 25% tariffs and renewed scrutiny on North American content open both challenges and opportunities in mining.

Sheinbaum Administration: Ambiguous Openness 

As early as December 2024, President Sheinbaum took a different approach toward the mining sector by rethinking the ban on open-pit mining proposed by former President López Obrador. The administration recognized that a constitutional prohibition on open-pit methods would inadvertently paralyze strategic sectors like construction. Specifically, the ban threatened the extraction of aggregates, such as sand and gravel, needed for infrastructure projects and lithium deposits required for the national energy transition.

During the Mexico Mining Forum PDAC 2025 in Toronto, Fernando Aboitiz, Head of the Extractive Activities Coordination Unit, Ministry of Economy (SE) outlined a renewed vision for the sector. Addressing an audience of global investors and mining company representatives, Aboitiz announced a collaborative effort with CAMIMEX to produce a new regulatory framework by June 2025, aimed at streamlining the very administrative bottlenecks that had paralyzed the sector during the previous term. “By reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks and providing clearer guidelines, the government hopes to attract renewed investment in mining while upholding high environmental and social standards,” Aboitiz said during the forum.

However, as the June deadline arrived, the scope of this renewed vision proved to be strictly defined. On Jun. 24, 2025, President Sheinbaum tempered the industry’s expectations during her morning conference, explicitly reaffirming that no new mining concessions would be issued under her administration. While she confirmed the withdrawal of the controversial ban on open-pit mining, she clarified that this was not a return to business as usual. The streamlining Aboitiz had promised in Toronto was revealed to be operational rather than expansionist: the permits being cleared were for waste management, water treatment, and environmental mitigation, ensuring existing mines could run cleanly, but not offering new concessions for expansion.

With over 176 environmental and water stalled permits inherited from the previous administration, the federal government was waiting for better inter-agency coordination to resolve the administrative paralysis. As Aboitiz acknowledged, the bottleneck was largely driven by outdated permits and a disconnect between agencies, which had threatened operational continuity. By the time the XXXVI International Mining Convention convened later in the year, the SE reported that this internal alignment was yielding results: 100 of the 176 pending permits had been approved.

This administrative shift reactivated an investment pipeline valued at over US$11 billion, triggering capital deployment across the country's major mining hubs. Zacatecas emerged as the primary beneficiary, where state officials identified a potential portfolio exceeding US$6.5 billion after slashing the local backlog from 25 pending permits to five. This regulatory thaw allowed key developments to advance, including the US$1.1 billion San Nicolás joint venture between Agnico Eagle and Teck Resources, and Orla Mining’s Camino Rojo, which secured the clearance needed to extend its mine life by 20 years. 

Similarly, in Sonora, the resolution of delays enabled Silver Tiger to schedule construction for its El Tigre project in 2026. Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard responded to the sector's renewed momentum by framing these approvals not just as administrative corrections, but as a matter of national security. Addressing the convention, Ebrard stated that the government is committed to resuming large-scale exploration in 2026, viewing access to minerals as a determinant of competitiveness in a context of growing geopolitical tension. "For Mexico, the security of our supply chain is evidently a priority of the highest rank," he noted, warning that failing to seize this opportunity would be a serious disadvantage. 

Ebrard confirmed that authorities were taking the first steps to streamline procedures, acknowledging CAMIMEX as a key partner in addressing the remaining water and regulatory bottlenecks. "We have been speaking with the engineers, with CAMIMEX, which I believe is one of the business chambers working closest with the Federal government. We have been working on the issue of water, regulations, and permits. Every day Aboitiz talks to me, it is about mines, mines, mines,” Ebrard noted during the Acapulco convention.

Despite these advancements and the federal government's engagement with the mining sector, 2025 concluded without resolving the structural pillars needed for long-term growth. The industry remains in a state of legal limbo regarding the Mining Law reform of 2023, as the regulations required to implement it have yet to be published. Furthermore, while Ebrard emphasized the urgency of exploration, the actual operational model for the Mexican Geological Service (SGM), now the sole entity authorized to conduct such activities, remains undefined and untested, as SGM’s resources are not enough to replace the investment assigned to exploration by the private sector. 

In response to the government’s stance on exploration, Ruben del Pozo, President, AIMMGM, has called for a mixed model to resolve the impasse. Under this proposal, the State would maintain control, but the private sector and academia would contribute resources, technology, and knowledge with transparency and accountability. "Today, geologists are running out of work. But tomorrow, it could be the miners, and then the metallurgists, affecting everyone else who works in this industry. We must not forget that mining is a sector of long maturation and high risk. It requires many years and millions of dollars before a project begins production,” del Pozo stressed, adding that while SGM has world-class engineers, it lacks sufficient resources to carry out the scale of exploration the mining sector needs to remain competitive.

Global Factors Influence Mining Performance 

Beyond domestic policy, the Mexican mining sector in 2025 was deeply shaped by a shifting global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Financially, the environment turned highly favorable as a cycle of lower interest rates and geopolitical tension drove mineral prices to historic levels.

Industrial and precious metals saw dramatic movement. Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded up 1.5% at US$12,405/t, underscoring the structural supply deficit. However, the most explosive growth was seen in precious metals. Gold hit a record high above US$4,500/oz, set to end the year up more than 66%, while silver outperformed the entire complex, gaining over 158% to peak above US$83/oz. Market participants expect current trends to persist into 2026, with forecasts suggesting gold could climb to US$5,000/oz and silver to US$90/oz.

These market dynamics collided with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, adding a layer of complexity. Threats of 25% tariffs and renewed scrutiny on North American content created challenges and opportunities. Crucially, China's implementation of export bans on key critical minerals created a sudden vacuum in the North American market. According to the Fitch Solutions unit BMI, China is set to intensify efforts to dominate critical mineral value chains through accelerated exploration and stricter export restrictions.

This geopolitical friction is driving a surge in M&As as companies race to secure reserves of copper, lithium, and rare earth elements. BMI highlights that supply bottlenecks could slow development in sectors like AI, robotics, and defense, prompting downstream manufacturers in the automotive and technology industries to secure materials directly from mining sites via strategic partnerships and offtake deals. 

Sierra Plata and Los Lirios exemplify the strategic pivot toward securing critical minerals within North America, driven by the need to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. J2 Metals' Sierra Plata project in Guerrero leverages an option agreement with Impact Silver to explore historic silver mines that also exhibit significant antimony potential, evidenced by adjacent high-grade stibnite occurrences. 

Similarly, EV Resources' acquisition of a majority stake in the Los Lirios project in Oaxaca is explicitly framed as a response to US critical mineral designations and recent export restrictions from China. By targeting a site with historic workings and potential for Direct Shipping Ore, the venture aims to rapidly install a concentration plant to help fill the supply vacuum in the US market. Both initiatives highlight a trend where miners are capitalizing on Mexico’s geological assets and trade proximity to revive legacy mines as essential nodes in Western defense and technology supply chains.

Mexican Mining Set for Challenges in 2026

The world is experiencing a tense geopolitical environment and regionalization of supply chains, along with inherent challenges to the mining sector, including resource and reserve depletion, operational complexity, as well as rising costs and productivity issues. In this context, the federal government faces the challenge of balancing promises made to voters, industrial development, and environmental protection. Crucially, it must rebuild trust within a mining sector that currently accounts for 8.7% of industrial GDP and generates 3 million jobs, of which 416,000 are direct jobs.

Navigating this balance will be decisive in 2026, as the window to capitalize on North American supply chain integration narrows. Without a clear regulatory path that encourages exploration and guarantees legal certainty, Mexico risks stagnating as a raw material supplier rather than evolving into a strategic partner in the global energy transition and relocation of manufacturing processes, potentially ceding investment to jurisdictions with more defined industrial policies. 

"Our industry enables over 192 productive sectors, both upstream and downstream, strengthening USMCA by supplying essential inputs for high-tech manufacturing. This places Mexican mining at the center of Plan México and regional energy, industrial, and technological competitiveness," said Pedro Rivero, President, CAMIMEX, during the XXXVI International Mining Convention. "Fully recognizing mining within the USMCA is not a corporate matter, but one of economic security for the region. Integrating the sector fully will strengthen the Made in Mexico project and preserve the pride of being a mining nation with a conscious, innovative industry committed to its environment,” he added.