Silver Prices Drop Following Delay in US Critical Mineral Tariffs

Silver prices experienced a decline on Jan. 15, 2026, after hitting an all-time high of US$93.75/oz the previous day. The spot price fell as much as 7% during morning trading before recovering to settle near US$90/oz by midday. This pullback follows a year-to-date gain of 15% for the metal.

The price movement coincided with a decision by US President Donald Trump to withhold broad tariffs on critical minerals, including silver. The administration indicated it would prioritize bilateral negotiations and discussed the possibility of price floors instead of immediate import levies. Trump instructed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to negotiate with partners to ensure imports do not impair national security, a move supported by a Section 232 review that found that the United States is too reliant on foreign sources.

Anticipation of potential tariffs had previously influenced silver stockpiles in US warehouses. Inventories linked to the COMEX futures exchange in New York currently stand at approximately 434Moz, an increase of 100Moz compared to 2024, reports mining.com. The urgency to secure supply is underscored by the 2025 US Critical Minerals List, which added silver as one of 60 minerals vital to economy and national security due to significant supply chain risks.

Rhona O’Connell, Analyst, StoneX Group, noted that while these inventories exist, silver remains on the critical minerals list and could be subject to future trade measures. Analysts also highlighted that thin liquidity and high investor demand have contributed to heightened volatility, leading to sharp price swings that can trigger automated selling or short covering. The global landscape remains challenging as China continues to dominate refining for 19 out of 20 key strategic minerals with an average market share of 70%, exposing industries to geopolitical disruptions, as reported to MBN.

Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist, TD Securities, stated that the administration’s surgical approach reduces fears of broad tariffs that could have disrupted benchmark metals prices. Despite the volatility in silver, gold prices remained stable near record highs, largely unaffected by the critical minerals decision.

Silver Demand to Remain Strong

Broader demand for commodities remained evident this week, with copper and tin also reaching record levels. Silver continues to be supported by industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, and speculative activity in international markets.

Global industrial demand for silver is projected to increase over the next five years, supported by the expansion of the solar energy, automotive, and data center sectors. According to a report by Oxford Economics for the Silver Institute, these industries will drive consumption through 2030 as part of the energy transition and digital transformation.

The solar photovoltaic (PV) sector has grown to account for 29% of industrial silver demand in 2024, up from 11% in 2014. Despite the elimination of federal green energy subsidies in July 2025, US solar generation is forecast to grow at a 14% CAGR through 2030, driven by state-level incentives in the United States and demand from data centers. In the automotive sector, electric vehicles (EVs) require between 25g and 50g of silver per unit, significantly more than internal combustion engines. Oxford Economics anticipates that EVs will become the primary source of automotive silver demand by 2027.

The expansion of digital infrastructure further supports this trend. Global IT power capacity has expanded by approximately 53 times since 2000, reaching nearly 50GW in 2025. This growth needs substantial silver for servers, switches, and cooling systems within the world's 4,600 data centers.