Cargo Theft Surges Across Mexico in 1Q25

Cargo theft in Mexico continues to escalate, with 81% of incidents in the first quarter of 2025 involving violence, according to Overhaul’s latest Cargo Theft Report. Based on real-time data and intelligence, the report reveals a concentration of national thefts in the central and southeast regions, primarily in the State of Mexico and Puebla.

A Violent and Persistent Threat

According to the National Public Security System (SNSP), 81% of cargo thefts in 1Q25 involved some form of violence. Logistics firm Círculo Logístico reports that 1,086 violent attacks on truck drivers took place during the first two months of 2025, equivalent to one every 47 minutes. “If this trend continues, cargo theft could rise between 7% and 11% in the first half of the year,” says Héctor Romero, President, Círculo Logístico.

Economic pressures, such as the US tariff policies, may also be exacerbating the problem. “When tariffs increase, the value of goods rises, making them even more attractive to organized crime,” says Romero, adding that this pattern became noticeable during the transition to Donald Trump’s presidency.

Geographic Hotspots and Shifting Trends

Overhaul’s report reveals that cargo theft is not evenly distributed across Mexico. In 1Q25, the central and southeast regions accounted for 78% of national incidents. Overall, 84% of thefts were concentrated in just ten states, with the State of Mexico and Puebla leading the list, each responsible for 19% of the national total.

Other states showing increases compared to 1Q24 include Guanajuato and San Luis Potosi (up 3%), Queretaro and Veracruz (up 2% each), and Hidalgo (up 1%).

The west of the country saw a slight decrease in activity (down from 16% to 14%), though it still remains a high-risk zone with 25% of total incidents.

Guanajuato: A New Epicenter

Guanajuato has emerged as the third most dangerous state for cargo theft, accounting for 11% of national incidents. Two highway corridors have become particular hotspots: the Queretaro-Leon Highway (MEX-45D), spanning Apaseo el Grande, Celaya, and Juventino Rosas, saw 61% of the state’s incidents and the Queretaro–San Luis Potosi Highway (MEX-57D), particularly between San Luis de la Paz and San Jose Iturbide, experienced 14% of cases.

Crimes in Guanajuato were highly time-specific, 88% occurred from Tuesday to Friday, and nearly half (43%) took place in the early hours between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. The most targeted vehicles included Tractor Trucks (55%), 10-Ton Trucks (28%), and Box Trucks (11%), with criminals primarily seeking food and drinks (30%), autos and parts (12%), and building and industrial materials (10%).

The most common method of theft remains interception of cargo units in motion (62.6%), followed by theft of parked vehicles (36.8%), particularly in known high-risk zones like cachimbas or huachicoleras.

Nationally, the most dangerous days for cargo transport are Tuesday through Friday, which account for 69% of thefts. In terms of timing, 31% of crimes occurred between 6 p.m. and midnight, while 28% happened between 6 a.m. and noon, aligning with typical departure schedules for freight.

High-Value Targets

Certain product categories are particularly vulnerable: food and drinks (34%), up 5% from last year, with avocados being a prime target, building and industrial materials (10%), autos and parts (9%), up 4%, with a focus on cars in transit, tires, and electrical components.