2025 Marks PEMEX’s Lowest Output Since MORENA Took Office

PEMEX’s crude output has continued to struggle through 2025, marking the lowest annual production levels since 2018 and underscoring the structural and operational pressures facing Mexico’s state-owned oil company. Recent data shows that while production has stabilized slightly in the second half of the year, the company remains far from meeting the federal government’s target of 1.8MMb/d, a figure presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum as both a ceiling to limit fossil fuel dependence and a benchmark for operational recovery.

According to PEMEX’s most recent monthly reports, total liquid hydrocarbon production in October reached 1.641MMb/d. The figure includes condensates, a practice that diverges from common international reporting standards but was adopted by PEMEX several years ago during the push for energy self-sufficiency. October’s number represents a slight decline from September, which registered 1.652MMb/d, the highest monthly volume so far in 2025. Output in August reached 1.645MMb/d, and July recorded 1.648MMb/d.

These July and August levels marked a modest improvement compared with production in 1H25. Between January and June, the highest monthly figure was registered in May at 1.636MMb/d. The lowest came in March at 1.607MMb/d, which stands as the weakest monthly performance of PEMEX’s output since the MORENA administration first entered office in 2018.

With an annual average of 1.632MMb/d to date, 2025 represents a significant drop from the previous administration’s performance. Between January 2018 and December 2024, PEMEX maintained an average of 1.773MMb/d, roughly 8% above the current year’s average. Production briefly surged in 2023, reaching 1.904MMb/d in April and May, before entering a sustained downward trajectory. The decline accelerated between November 2024, when PEMEX produced 1.673MMb/d, and January 2025, when output fell to 1.617MMb/d.

The Sheinbaum administration inherited a company weighed down by legacy infrastructure, rising debt, and persistent operational inefficiencies. These constraints have continued to limit PEMEX’s capacity to stabilize production despite substantial public investment during the previous administration aimed at both exploration and refining. The prior government prioritized energy sovereignty and increased federal support for PEMEX, but the combined effect of aging fields, delayed maintenance, and operational losses prevented the company from reversing its production decline.

Policy decisions have also played a role. The halt to upstream auctions for private companies reduced the pace of new field development and exploration activities. While the introduction of the new Mixed Contracts model in 2025 brought some clarity for private participation, experts note that negotiations for the first 11 contracts have not moved fast enough to materially influence production this year. Analysts have highlighted that without broader private involvement or a significant increase in investment efficiency, PEMEX is unlikely to reach or maintain volumes near the 1.8MMb/d target.

The production shortfall has broader implications for Mexico’s energy balance. Lower output affects crude exports, refinery feedstock availability, and fiscal stability, given PEMEX’s long-standing role as a major source of public revenue. The continued reliance on condensates to lift headline figures indicates the extent of pressure on traditional crude output. Both national and international observers note that structural solutions are needed, including improved field management, increased capital discipline, and regulatory reforms that align with long-term supply requirements.

As the government moves to redefine the energy sector under President Sheinbaum, PEMEX’s production trajectory in 2025 underscores the scale of the challenge ahead. The company must navigate declining mature fields, constrained budgetary space, and expectations to support national energy objectives, all while facing ongoing scrutiny from credit rating agencies and industry analysts. The remainder of the year will be critical for determining whether recent signs of stabilization can be sustained or whether Mexico will need deeper policy adjustments to confront its declining oil output.

The production figures published so far point to a complex scenario in which operational realities, financial pressures, and political priorities interact. Whether PEMEX can reverse its downward trend will shape not only the company’s future but also Mexico’s broader energy and economic landscape.