Fuel Gasoline Rises, Oil Exports Decrease

In February, PEMEX ramped up gasoline production by 19%, reaching 310.5Mb/d, compared to 260Mb/d during the same period last year. Diesel production also saw a significant increase, rising by 60% to 168.2Mb/d. However, despite increased refining capacity, the company still imported 376.3MB/d of oil products during the same month.

PEMEX has long struggled with gasoline production, being this the fuel it had to import the most. National refineries usually refine more fuel oil than any other types of derivatives, which presents a significant challenge due to its low value resulting from its high pollution levels.

In line with the government's refining strategy, the NOC has begun scaling back oil exports, canceling contracts with refineries worldwide, as reported by Bloomberg, while also aligning with OPEC's efforts to increase oil prices. In January 2024, Mexican oil exports dipped by 35.2% compared to the same period in 2018. Nonetheless, in February, oil exports increased 15.7%.

Despite the adjustments in export volumes, Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) maintains relatively stable export projections for 2025. The Economic Policy Pre Criteria for 2025 forecasts crude oil exports of 958.4Mb/d, a marginal 1% reduction compared to the 2024 export forecast.

Moreover, President López Obrador's energy self-sufficiency strategy faces ongoing delays, with the goal of halting fuel imports by 2023 initially pushed to 2024 and still unfulfilled. The plan aimed to reduce dependence on fuel imports through the rehabilitation of the National Refining System (SNR), including the Olmeca Refinery, which has faced multiple delays. Additionally, the importation of all production from the Deer Park refinery was envisioned. However, this has not materialized, partly due to the higher profitability of commercializing fuels in the US market.

PEMEX Invests More in Refining Than Sustainability

As it seeks to finance its grappling debt, PEMEX has been working toward implementing sustainability strategies. The NOC recently launched its sustainability plan outlining the company's commitments to reducing emissions, with a focus on methane reduction and transitioning to cleaner energy sources.

PEMEX estimates an investment of between US$3 billion and US$5 billion to achieve these goals, which will involve initiatives such as reducing gas flaring, improving energy efficiency, and investing in renewable energy projects like hydrogen and electricity generation, as reported by Bloomberg Línea.

However, PEMEX's investments in sustainability pale compared to its investments in refining. The Olmeca Refinery alone has cost the company US$20 billion, more than double the initially announced investment of US$8 billion. Moreover, efforts to reduce emissions in refineries, encompassing enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing combustion processes, and minimizing routine flaring in refining, represent a maximum investment of US$450 million, as reported by Energía a Debate.