China on Track to Cut Energy Emissions by 2051, Study Finds

A new study published in the journal RSC Sustainability projects that China could eliminate all air pollution and carbon emissions from energy use by 2051 if it maintains its current pace of renewable energy deployment, making it the fastest large economy on track to fully decarbonize. By contrast, the United States and India are projected to reach the same milestone only after 2140, underscoring wide disparities in national transition speeds.

Analyzing recent renewable installation rates across 150 countries, the study finds that the world as a whole is on track to eliminate energy-related emissions by 2094. Seven countries—including Laos, Estonia and Lithuania—could reach that point before 2036, while several others, such as Norway, Switzerland and Portugal, could do so before 2048.

China’s projected timeline is driven by what lead author Mark Z. Jacobson describes it as the fastest clean-energy expansion in history. In 2024, China installed 372 GW of wind, solar and hydropower capacity. During the first 10 months of 2025, it added another 331 GW, putting it on pace to install about 397 GW for the full year. After accounting for capacity factors and grid losses, China is expected to increase average renewable power output by about 97 GW in 2025 alone.

By comparison, the United States is projected to add about 9.6 GW of average renewable output in 2025, while India is expected to add about 9.8 GW. At those rates, the study estimates the US would reach 100% clean energy across all sectors by about 2148 and India by about 2139.

Several smaller countries are closer to completion due to high existing renewable shares and rapid growth. Laos already met nearly 96% of its projected 2050 clean-energy requirement in 2024, largely due to extensive hydropower capacity. While Estonia and Lithuania have lower current shares — 19.6% and 20.3% respectively — their fast renewable growth rates will allow them to reach a full energy transition by 2036.  

The study also highlights a disconnect between renewable penetration and transition speed. Countries such as Iceland, Canada and the United Kingdom already generate large shares of electricity from renewable sources but are expanding capacity too slowly to decarbonize all energy sectors this century if current trends persist. Iceland, for example, produced 100% renewable electricity in 2024 but would not reach full economywide clean energy until after 2350 at its current pace.

While concerns remain about storage, grid stability and electrification of transport and industry, the study points to rapid cost declines and deployment trends as mitigating factors. China broke ground in 2025 on a 60-GW hydropower project and saw battery storage prices fall to about $52 per KWh, down 30% from the previous year. Electric vehicle adoption is also accelerating, with battery-electric vehicles accounting for more than half of new vehicle sales in China in 2024.

Jacobson cautions that projections become more uncertain the further they extend into the future, as policies, costs and priorities may change. Still, the researcher argues that current deployment rates provide a realistic benchmark for assessing national progress and correcting overly optimistic assumptions. 

To produce the projections, the study combined estimates of each country’s 2050 energy demand with data on renewable capacity installed in 2023, 2024 and, where available, 2025. It modeled a near-complete electrification of all energy sectors, including transportation, buildings and industry, with remaining heat demand supplied directly by renewable sources.

The analysis focuses exclusively on wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, tidal and wave power, collectively referred to as wind-water-solar (WWS) energy. Nuclear and bioenergy were excluded due to concerns over cost, pollution, land use and long-term risk. Efficiency gains from electrification, such as the reduction in energy demand when switching from internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles, were incorporated into the demand projections.

Overall, the study finds that transitioning to clean, renewable energy could reduce global end-use energy demand by an average of 54%, while eliminating nearly all energy-related air pollution and climate-damaging emissions. Jacobson concludes that the pace already achieved by leading countries demonstrates that a full energy transition is technically feasible within decades, provided governments and markets prioritize rapid deployment over incremental change.

Implications for Mexico

The study’s findings underscore that adding clean power capacity quickly is more critical than setting long-term targets. “Policies focusing on clean, renewable energy alone can effectively speed a transition,” Jacobson writes, noting that countries already moving fastest are not relying heavily on carbon capture, biofuels or nuclear power. 

Within Jacobson’s dichotomy, Mexico falls into the latter grouping. In 2022, Mexico had committed to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, only to push that target back by five years in 2025. While Mexico’s Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) has often taken progressive positions on climate policy and renewable energy, particularly under the leadership of Minister Alicia Bárcena, the reality of its energy matrix tells another story. Only roughly 25% of Mexico’s electricity comes from renewable sources, while the other three-quarters come from fossil fuels. 

Mexico’s federal budget for 2026 offers little hope for a large-scale transition to renewable energy. PEMEX, the state oil company, will receive US$28.2 billion, a 7.7% increase from 2025. The Ministry of Energy (SENER) will see its budget rise 86.8%, to US$14.5 billion, making it the largest beneficiary of fiscal expansion in 2026. Of this, just 1.4% (US$94.3 million) is allocated to clean energy,  while 98.6% (US$14.3 billion) is dedicated to hydrocarbons.

Within the clean energy allocation, MX$1.15 billion (US$62.8 million) goes to the General Directorate of Renewable Energies, and MX$427 million (US$23.3 million) to the National Institute of Electricity and Clean Energies. Both allocations primarily cover operational and personnel costs, leaving little funding for new renewable projects.