OPEC Projects Small Oil Surplus in 2026 After Output Adjustments

OPEC expects the global oil market to move into a small surplus in 2026, reversing earlier projections of a deficit, according to its latest monthly report released Wednesday. The shift comes as OPEC+, which includes Russia and other producing allies, plans to pause production increases amid signs of oversupply.

OPEC reported that the OPEC+ group produced 43.02MMb/d in October, a decline of 73Mb/d from September, primarily due to lower output in Kazakhstan. If the group maintains current production levels, the market will face a surplus of roughly 20Mb/d next year, based on OPEC’s calculations.

This marks a significant adjustment from OPEC’s September forecast, which predicted a deficit of about 700Mb/d in 2026, followed by a smaller shortfall of 50Mb/d in last month’s report. The change in outlook suggests that recent production increases and stronger-than-expected supply growth from non-OPEC producers have begun to ease earlier market tightness.

Oil prices fell more than 3% after the report was published, trading near US$63/b, reflecting investor reactions to the updated supply outlook.