PEMEX Crude Output Dips 8% Year On Year Despite July Rebound

PEMEX reported mixed results for July 2025, with crude oil production reaching its highest level in eight months even as exports and revenues took a sharp hit. Natural gas output and refinery processing showed year-on-year gains, while oil product output increased modestly, reflecting shifting dynamics in the state-owned company’s upstream and downstream operations.

Crude oil production averaged 1.38MMb/d in July, a 7.8% decline compared to the 1.49MMb/d reported in July 2024. Despite the year-on-year fall, July marked PEMEX’s highest monthly output so far in 2025 and the strongest since November 2024, when production reached 1.41MMb/d. The figures highlight both the ongoing struggle to reverse long-term declines and the importance of incremental gains within the company’s production profile.

Natural gas production reached 4.60Bcf/d in July, up 0.8% from the same month last year. It was the strongest monthly figure of 2025 and marked the highest output since June 2024. Only June and July of last year had surpassed 4.60Bcf/d since early 2022, showing that PEMEX is gradually looking to stabilize production levels in line with its operational targets of increasing national natural gas production to decrease dependence on US imports.

Oil product production also showed modest growth. Output reached 1.09MMb/d, up 2% from July 2024. Gasoline production rose sharply by 25.6% to 362Mb/d, while diesel output climbed 19% to 244Mb/d. Kerosene production also increased, up 41% year-on-year. These gains were offset by a steep drop in fuel oil output, which fell 46% to 180Mb/d, signaling a continued shift away from heavy fuel production. 

On the refining side, the NOC processed 1.02MMb/d in July, a 1% year-on-year increase. The gains were driven largely by the Dos Bocas refinery, which processed 156Mb/d, up 139% compared to July 2024, when the facility was still ramping up. Other refineries delivered mixed results: Salamanca and Madero posted modest increases, while Tula, Minatitlán, and Cadereyta reported lower throughput compared to last year. Salina Cruz, PEMEX’s largest refinery, processed 228Mb/d, holding steady from 2024.

Despite stronger domestic refining, PEMEX saw crude exports drop by nearly 23% to 601Mb/d from 779Mb/d a year earlier. The Americas absorbed the largest share at 286Mb/d, followed by Europe with 221Mb/d and the Middle East with 93Mb/d. Weaker export volumes were compounded by lower crude prices, driving revenues down 32.4% to US$1.16 billion. Average prices slipped from US$71.36/b in July 2024 to US$62.57/b this year.

Imports moved in the opposite direction, with oil product purchases declining 21.5% to 566Mb/d. Gasoline imports fell by 18% to 346Mb/d, while diesel imports plunged 45% to 78Mb/d. Imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased slightly to 69Mb/d. Petrochemical imports, meanwhile, surged 258% to 3.45Mt, reflecting rising demand from the industrial sector. Natural gas imports rose 4.6% to 889MMcf/d, highlighting Mexico’s continued dependence on US pipeline gas despite the modest rebound in domestic production.

The most dramatic change came in petrochemical imports, which soared 258% to 3.45 million mt, up from just 0.96 million mt in July 2024. The surge points to strong industrial demand and limited domestic production capacity in this segment.

July’s numbers encapsulate PEMEX’s current balancing act, with domestic production showing pockets of resilience, particularly in natural gas and refined fuels, while refining is benefiting from Dos Bocas’ ramp-up and a shift away from fuel oil. At the same time, weaker exports and lower revenues illustrate the financial pressure from international market conditions and declining crude output.