PEMEX Plan Faces Execution, Governance Risks: SL Intelligence

PEMEX’s new Strategic Plan 2025–2035 represents a critical window to restore investor confidence and secure the company’s long-term viability, according to SL Intelligence. The analysis warns that while the plan outlines ambitious upstream investment, energy transition projects, and a debt-reduction path, execution risks remain high without stronger governance and operational modernization.

The government’s recent US$12 billion in pre-capitalized bonds and US$13 billion project-financing trust have given the NOC short-term breathing room, helping Fitch upgrade its rating to BB. But SL Intelligence cautions that this level of fiscal relief may not be sustainable if inefficiencies persist.

Upstream, PEMEX is betting US$86 billion between 2026 and 2030 to reach 1.8MMb/d, aided by “Mixed Contracts” with private partners to tap high-potential oil and gas fields. SL Intelligence sees this as an opportunity to rebuild credibility as a reliable counterparty, if partnerships are structured transparently and production targets are met.

On the energy transition front, the plan’s 2.1GW cogeneration expansion and pilots in hydrogen, geothermal, and lithium extraction are promising, but lack clear timelines and scale. The review concludes that PEMEX must urgently divest inefficient assets and modernize processes to turn the plan’s promise into measurable progress.