Mexico Ready to Impose Reciprocal Tariffs if US Increases Duties

Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard stated that if Donald Trump were to increase tariffs across various sectors, Mexico would respond proportionally. He emphasized Mexico’s significant role in trade negotiations, particularly given the framework of USMCA, which is set for review in 2026. 

“If a 25% tariff is imposed on us, we will be forced to counter with reciprocal tariffs. As one of the United States’ main trading partners, alongside Canada, any tariff hikes will result in corresponding actions from our side,” Ebrard stated.

Ebrard further clarified that, while additional US tariffs could appear harmful, Mexico is well-positioned to negotiate with its primary trade partners. "Given the substantial volume of US imports from Mexico, such tariffs would affect not only the automotive industry but also a wide range of other sectors. Under inflationary pressures, this approach could become unsustainable, rendering it impractical for North America overall."

Experts believe that, in addition to tariffs, a key factor in the USMCA revision will be China. Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports, driven by concerns that Chinese companies are circumventing US tariffs by channeling goods through third countries, including Mexico. Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former Chief Negotiator, USMCA, considers that despite differences, the treaty will remain in force. "The risk of USMCA being canceled in 2026 is minimal. If no agreement is reached, we will transition to an annual review system beginning that year," he told BNamericas.

While the outlook remains uncertain, this is not the first time the Mexican government has had to navigate a Trump administration. López Obrador, President Sheinbaum’s predecessor, faced similar tariff threats from Trump, which he managed by deploying Mexican forces to control migrant flows. This informal arrangement allowed Mexico to address migration concerns while the US refrained from intervening in Mexico's internal affairs.