Reflections, Lessons From Climate Disaster That Struck Valencia

Destiny has already caught up with us. The torrential rain that fell in the Valencia region of Spain at the end of October is now etched in the annals of climatic disasters. In just three hours, the region received the equivalent of two years' worth of precipitation. It is one of the largest meteorological cataclysms ever recorded in that part of the world — not just due to its magnitude and the damage left in its wake, but because it underscores that no country is safe anymore from these increasingly intense and recurrent events.

Skeptics of climate change often highlight that the damage and the number of victims from such phenomena are more frequent and impactful in developing countries due to a lack of planning, organization, and the capacity of local governments, rather than the scale of the event itself. This is a way to deny the reality and severity of climatic disasters.

However, in this case, the adversity and the extent of the damage result from the combination of an extraordinary phenomenon and the context of a highly developed region in terms of urbanization and infrastructure. The phenomenon occurred in the heart of Europe, leaving no room to blame underdevelopment.

On the contrary, the first lesson is that the dimensions of the disaster occurred in one of Spain's wealthiest areas. The Valencia region is the third-largest urbanized and economically significant zone after Madrid and Barcelona. Therefore, we are not dealing with a "banana republic" scenario lacking logistics or civil protection. Rather, due to its urban and developmental characteristics, the event turned into one of the greatest disasters in the last hundred years, even though it may not have been the most intense.

The autonomous community of Valencia and its Mediterranean coastline regularly experience this meteorological phenomenon known as the "cold drop" or DANA (an acronym for Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos, or ), an isolated depression at high altitude that causes violent and massive torrential rains. In other words, it is a frequent occurrence that happens annually. What was unprecedented, however, was the intensity and volume of rainfall.

One of the initial factors that explain this is the high surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea, which reached a record 28.5 degrees Celsius in August.

But this alone does not explain the scale of the damage. It is the conjunction of an extraordinary phenomenon in a highly urbanized and densely populated area with modern infrastructure. This reflects the consequences of uncontrolled urban expansion and changes in land use that failed to account for natural hydrological cycles.

The catastrophe caused by the cold drop perfectly illustrates the limits of modern society, where optimization and increased speed are the essential factors. We are witnessing the collapse of performance-optimized systems — according to the French scientist Olivier Hamant’s theory — when they face adversities or disturbances that exceed their tolerance range, leading to their breakdown. This theory emphasizes the need to rethink systems, making them less optimal and perfect, but more robust and flexible to cushion major disruptions in this new world of environmental and climatic adversities so that everything doesn’t fall apart.

Hamant explains that the pursuit of perfection, optimization, and high performance in new economic and capitalist models, due to their high complexity, makes them vulnerable to the slightest disruptive effect. For instance, a few months ago, a bug in a small program update caused paralysis in airports and airlines worldwide. A simple IT error halted global aviation for several hours, causing billion-dollar losses. In contrast, in a forest with high biodiversity, where hundreds of species coexist, damage caused by adverse weather, such as fallen branches or uprooted trees, does not have significant long-term consequences because the system — the forest — is diverse and robust.

This is precisely what happened in the metropolitan area of Valencia. When the authorities learned about the DANA, they believed there was no need to alarm the public, as it could have caused economic losses and inconveniences. They trusted the hydraulic infrastructure to handle the drainage, but it failed and collapsed.

Robustness is the ability of a system to absorb external disturbances while maintaining itself without breaking. A robust system is flexible and can adjust its functioning depending on the circumstances, managing to maintain its essential functions both in unforeseen conditions and during significant shocks. These are not perfect or optimal systems, but they preserve global resilience.

On the contrary, performance-based systems rely on maximum efficiency. However, they are often rigid in their optimization, which makes them vulnerable to any disturbance that falls outside expected ranges.

This catastrophe precisely demonstrates the limitations of performance-based systems when faced with major turbulence and highlights the need to change paradigms. The region's hydraulic infrastructures — drainage systems, pipelines, dams, among others — are designed for average precipitation conditions and represent a feat of engineering for managing rainwater under normal circumstances. They have a maximum capacity, and if exceeded, the waters overflow.

In contrast, natural ecosystems have the robustness of adaptation. Wetlands and permeable soils offer a solution to absorb excess water, and while they may not be as efficient in normal times, they prove to be highly effective in adversity.

The Valencia region, as highlighted earlier, is one of the most prosperous areas in Spain, representing over 10% of the Spanish GDP. Its infrastructure, including ports, airports, roads, highways, the AVE (high-speed train) network, industrial and technological parks, and agricultural systems with irrigation and hydraulic structures to divert river flows, makes it a strategic hub in the Mediterranean.

The urban area of Valencia is located at the end of the basin in its coastal zone, where all runoff water accumulates. In the past, there was a hydraulic buffer zone on the city’s periphery, but it was destroyed by urban expansion and the paving over of agricultural and conservation lands. Furthermore, to prevent flooding in the city center, the Turia River was diverted south of the city. What was once a technological feat and an infrastructure milestone that spurred the region's economic growth has now turned into its downfall.

The new paradigm here is that all those advantages and opportunities have transformed into a trap that caused hundreds of victims, incalculable material damage, and the collapse of infrastructure in the face of these new climatic turbulences, which, unfortunately, are becoming increasingly intense and recurrent.

The torrential rains turned urban infrastructures into actual waterways in their rush to the sea, devastating everything in their path: streets, roads, industrial zones, shopping centers, individual vehicles, and more. All the benefits of urban concentration and modern cities turned against the population.

To provide a sense of the scale, here are some figures, though they are not exhaustive and continue to rise, unfortunately. Over 222 fatalities have been reported, many of whom were swept away in their vehicles, trapped in underground parking lots, or drowned in their homes. There are still about a dozen missing persons. More than 75 municipalities were affected. The hardest-hit area covers over 550 square kilometers, with more than 25,000 hectares of crops damaged. Over 40,000 Valencians were affected in terms of movable or immovable property. More than 200 kilometers of roads, 500 kilometers of railways, over 200,000 vehicles, and 50,000 homes were damaged, along with over 3,000 devastated businesses and half a million jobs affected. In total, over 800,000 citizens are experiencing disruptions in their daily lives, and normalcy is returning very slowly.

Another lesson from the DANA is that financial systems, especially insurance companies, are incapable of coping with such events. Within the first two weeks, claims exceeded €3.5 billion (US$3.6 billion), with over 175,000 applications. The Spanish government had to step in, providing funds to help insurers meet these demands, which are believed to surpass their three-year capacity. Additional human resources had to be deployed, with insurers hiring over 3,000 additional staff.

The hydraulic and urban drainage infrastructures remain clogged with mud, and nearly two months later, the situation is far from resolved.

The loss of individual cars and the lack of efficient public transportation have drastically changed the daily routines of most DANA victims. A short trip has turned into a journey of at least two hours, preventing people from carrying out basic activities, such as shopping or taking their children to extracurricular activities. For thousands of workers, commuting to work has become a nightmare, and they have no idea when the situation will improve, as they do not expect compensation sufficient to purchase cars of similar characteristics.

The drama in Valencia is no longer news in Spain, as the rapid news cycle has shifted attention to Typhoon Chido in the French islands of Mayotte. Ultimately, humanity is unprepared to face future turbulences under these high-performance and innovative system models. Our heavy reliance on technology and accelerated processes will be our downfall. We must return to less efficient but more robust and community-oriented models. The emancipation of the individual through logistical and technological advancements is illusory in the face of the cataclysms we ourselves have forged in pursuit of this supposed individual liberation.

Let us move away from optimization and high performance toward a diverse and robust world. This is the lesson of this tragedy.

We are entering a moment in history where modernity, innovation, and infrastructure call for ecological planning rather than urban planning —  a need for more buffer zones and lands that can absorb and regulate water levels to prevent flooding. Less infrastructure and less individual mobility.