Trudeau's Resignation: Turning Point for Canada-Mexico Relations

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as both Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, marking a significant turning point in Canadian politics. The resignation comes at a sensitive moment for Canada's internal dynamics and its relations with neighboring countries, particularly Mexico and the United States.

Canada's next federal election is required by October 2025, although an earlier vote could be triggered depending on political developments. While the Liberal Party has not yet finalized the process for selecting Trudeau’s successor, a leadership race is expected. Key potential candidates include former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Transport Minister Anita Anand, and former central banker Mark Carney. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a vocal critic of Trudeau, is also well-positioned to leverage his party’s strong polling numbers and growing political momentum.

Relations between Canada and Mexico have been strained since Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on all imports from both nations. In response, Canadian leaders, including Trudeau, adopted a more critical stance toward Mexico, drawing attention to the stark differences between challenges faced at the US-Mexico border and those at the US-Canada border. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called for the dismantling of USMCA, proposing instead that the United States, Canada, and Mexico negotiate separate bilateral trade agreements.  Trudeau did not support the idea, but emphasized that Canada would consider voting to withdraw from the agreement if necessary.

Canada and Mexico share a longstanding trade relationship, spanning 80 years, though it is largely shaped by their trade reliance on the United States, their largest trading partner. According to the United Nations Comtrade database, nearly 75% of Canadian exports and over 80% of Mexican exports are directed to the United States. In contrast, bilateral trade between Canada and Mexico remains relatively small, totaling US$55 billion in 2023, as reported by the Canadian government. Despite the trade gap, Canada remains a significant investor in Mexico, ranking as the ninth-largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). In 2023, Canadian FDI in Mexico reached US$40.4 billion, with major investments in sectors such as mining, automotive, and agriculture.

Immigration is another complex issue in Canada-Mexico relations. During Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s tenure (2006–2015), Canada imposed a visa requirement for Mexican travelers due to an increase in asylum claims. However, Trudeau later lifted the visa requirement in 2016, aiming to strengthen ties with then-President Enrique Peña Nieto. The policy was reversed, however, after a surge in asylum applications from Mexican nationals.